How are the elections going in France and what will happen next?

French voters will go to the polls on Sunday for a unique moment in their political history: the first round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II – or it could result in no majority at all.

The outcome of the vote, conducted after a second round on July 7 and a hasty campaign, remains highly uncertain as three main political blocs compete: the far-right National Rally, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition of centre-left, green and far-left forces .

Here’s a closer look:

– How it’s working?

The French system is complicated and disproportionate to nationwide support for the party.

Members of Parliament are elected in constituencies. A candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote on a given day to be elected in the Sunday vote.

If unsuccessful, the top two candidates advance to the second round along with all others who received the support of more than 12.5% ​​of registered voters.

In some cases, three or four people advance to the second round, although some may leave to boost another candidate’s chances – a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates.

Key party leaders are expected to reveal their strategy between the two rounds. This makes the outcome of the second round highly uncertain and dependent on political maneuvering and voter reaction.

The far-right National Assembly, leading in all pre-election public opinion polls, hopes to win an absolute majority, i.e. at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of France’s parliament. He has the final say in the lawmaking process over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.

Mr Macron is president until 2027 and has said he will not step down before the end of his term.

– What is concubinage?

If a political force other than his centrist alliance wins the majority, Mr. Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to this new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement a policy that would deviate from the president’s plan.

The modern French republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac with socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, leads the government and presents draft laws.

“In the case of concubinage, the policy implemented is essentially the prime minister’s policy,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

The president is weakened internally during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties.

The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.

“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign government regulations or decrees,” Garrigues added.

“However, the prime minister has the right to submit these orders and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus ignoring the president’s reluctance,” he noted.

– Who is in charge of defense and foreign policy?

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy were considered an informal “reserved domain” for the president, who was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

Today, however, the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions on these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and are likely to be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation.

Under the French constitution, although “the president is the head of the military, the prime minister has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.

“Also in the diplomatic field, the president’s scope of action is significantly limited.”

National Assembly President Jordan Bardella said that if he became prime minister he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – Mr Macron did not rule out the possibility.

Bardella also said he would refuse to supply France with long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia itself.

A victory for the left-wing coalition could disrupt France’s diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.

The program of the New Popular Front assumes “immediate recognition of the Palestinian state” and “ending the French government’s reprehensible support” for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Mr Macron has previously argued that recognition of a Palestinian state should come at the “right moment”, suggesting that Israel’s war with Hamas does not allow for such a step at the moment.

– What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly – this is the case with Mr Macron’s centrist alliance from 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already announced it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a vote of no confidence if other political parties were to merge.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that seems unlikely given the political differences.

Experts say another complicated option would be to appoint a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus mainly on day-to-day business rather than implementing major reforms.

Mr Garrigues said that if political talks dragged on too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics, which will take place from July 26 to August 11, a “transitional period” could not be ruled out in which Macron’s centrist government would “continue to deal with current issues” while waiting for further decisions.

“Regardless of what the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” said Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris.

“Institutions are more solid than they appear, even in the face of this experiment.

“However, there remains one more unknown in this equation – the population’s ability to accept this situation.”