France’s far right takes the lead in the first round of early elections. Here’s what happens next

Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far-right and candidate of the far-right National Rassemblement Party, speaks to journalists after the partial results of the first round of the French snap parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024. Photo: Yves Herman/Reuters

PARIS (AP) — French voters will face a decisive choice July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since Nazi occupation in World War II — or no majority at all.

READ MORE: French voters turn out en masse in high-stakes early election as support for far-right grows

Poll forecasts suggest the far-right National Rally has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the complicated voting system.

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally edged him out, with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes the center-left, greens and far-left forces, came in second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Let’s take a closer look:

How it’s working?

The French system is complicated and disproportionate to nationwide party support. Legislators are elected by district.

More than 60 candidates who won at least 50 percent of Sunday’s votes were elected in direct elections.

In addition, the top two candidates and all others who receive the support of more than 12.5 percent of registered voters qualify for the second round.

In many districts, three people advanced to the second round, although some tactics to block far-right candidates have already been announced: the left-wing coalition announced the withdrawal of its candidates in districts when they are in third place, in order to support other politicians opposed to the extreme right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would drop out before extra time to block the National Assembly.

This makes the result of the second round uncertain, even though polls show that the National Rally has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of the French parliament. He has the final say in the lawmaking process in the conservative-dominated Senate.

Macron’s presidential mandate runs until 2027 and has announced that he will not step down before the end of his term.

What is cohabitation?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would introduce a policy that would deviate from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac with socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from 1997–2002.

The prime minister is responsible to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

“In the case of concubinage, the policy implemented is essentially the prime minister’s policy,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

The president is weakened domestically during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.

“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects because he has the power to sign or not sign government regulations or decrees,” Garrigues added.

“However, the Prime Minister has the right to submit these regulations and decrees to a vote by the National Assembly, thus overcoming the president’s reluctance,” he noted.

Who directs defense and foreign policy?

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy were considered an informal “reserved domain” for the president, who was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

Today, however, the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions in these areas are radically different from Macron’s and would likely be the subject of tensions during a potential cohabitation.

Under the constitution, although “the president is the head of the military, the prime minister has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.

“Also in the diplomatic field, the president’s scope of action is significantly limited,” Garrigues added.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he intends “to be a cohabiting prime minister, respecting the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising on the policies we will implement.”

Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – something Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse to deliver French long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia itself.

What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly – this has been the case with Macron’s centrist alliance since 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already announced it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a vote of no confidence if other political parties unite.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, which seems unlikely due to political differences.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he hoped on Sunday to win over enough centrist lawmakers to implement “most of the projects and ideas” together with other “republican forces”, which could include both centre-left and centre-right forces.

Experts say another complex option would be to establish an “expert government” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus on day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks drag on too long during the holidays and events between July 26 and August 8, Garrigues said a “transitional period” was not ruled out during which Macron’s centrist government would “continue to be in charge of current affairs” while waiting for further decisions.

“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, an expert in public law who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “The institutions are more solid than they seem, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”

“However, another unknown remains in the equation: the population’s ability to accept the situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.