The French are clearly ahead in the first round of early elections. Here’s how the ebb works and what happens next

PARIS (AP) — French voters will face a crucial choice on July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II — or no majority at all.

Poll forecasts suggest the far-right National Rally has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the complicated voting system.

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally edged him out, with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes the center-left, greens and far-left forces, came in second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Let’s take a closer look:

How it’s working?

The president of the far-right National Rally party, Jordan Bardella, delivers a speech after the first round of voting in the parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 30, 2024, in Paris. France’s high-stakes parliamentary election gave the far-right National Assembly a strong but not decisive lead in the first round of voting on Sunday, polling agencies predicted, dealing another slap in the face to centrist President Emmanuel Macron after his risky decision to call voters back to the polls for a second time within three weeks. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

Photo: ASSOCIATED PRESS/Aurelien Morissard

The French system is complicated and disproportionate to national party support. Lawmakers are elected by district.

More than 60 candidates who won at least 50% of Sunday’s votes were directly elected.

Additionally, the two largest candidates qualify for the second round, as well as all other candidates who received the support of more than 12.5% of registered voters.

In many districts, three people made it to the second round, although some tactics have already been announced to block far-right candidates: the left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they came third in order to support other politicians opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the second round in order to block the National Assembly.

This makes the outcome of the second round uncertain, even though polls show the National Rally party has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two chambers of the French parliament. It has the final say in the lawmaking process in the conservative-dominated Senate.

Macron is president until 2027 and has said he will not step down before the end of his term.

What is concubinage?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement a policy that differs from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has had three cohabitations, the last under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

The prime minister is responsible to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.

“In the case of cohabitation, what is essentially being implemented is the prime minister’s policy,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

The president is weakened in the country during cohabitation, but still has some authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.

“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, since he has the power to sign or not sign government regulations or decrees,” Garrigues added.

“However, the prime minister has the right to submit these orders and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus ignoring the president’s reluctance,” he noted.

Who conducts defense and foreign policy?

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy were considered an informal “reserved area” for the president, who was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

Currently, however, the far-right and left coalition’s views on these issues differ radically from Macron’s and are likely to become the subject of tension during a potential coalition.

According to the constitution, “the president is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.

“Also in the diplomatic field, the president’s scope of action is significantly limited,” Garrigues added.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he intended to “be a prime minister who lives in a cohabiting relationship, respects the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but is uncompromising in the policies we will implement.”

Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – something Macron did not rule out. Bardella also said he would refuse deliveries of French long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia itself.

What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly — as has been the case with Macron’s centrist alliance since 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already said it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a no-confidence vote if other political parties merge.

The president could attempt to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, which seems unlikely due to political differences.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal expressed hope that he will be able to gather enough centrist legislators on Sunday to build “most projects and ideas” together with other “republican forces”, which may include both center-left and center-right forces.

Experts say another complex option would be to establish a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still have to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would probably focus mainly on current affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks drag on too long during the holidays and events between July 26 and August 8, Garrigues said a “transitional period” was not ruled out during which Macron’s centrist government would “continue to be in charge of current affairs” while waiting for further decisions.

“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, an expert in public law who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “The institutions are more solid than they seem, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”

“But there remains one unknown in this equation: society’s ability to accept this situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.