By 2050, there will be 10.5 million electric cars and 98 million electric motorcycles on the road

The Vietnam Energy Outlook Report – Pathways to Net Zero (EOR-NZ), recently published by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority of the Ministry of Investment and Trade, the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) and the Danish Embassy in Vietnam, states that Vietnam can achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

To achieve net zero emissions as committed at COP26, Vietnam must continue to consider measures to reduce emissions now, especially in the power sector.

Plan 8, the country’s eighth energy development plan for 2021-2030, with a vision until 2050, set an ambitious, long-term goal of significant development of renewable energy after 2030.

However, the report pointed out that to achieve its net-zero-cost commitment by 2050, Vietnam needs to attract more investment in renewable energy before 2030, meaning that additional electricity demand will be met mainly by renewable sources from 2025 onwards.

The report indicated that Vietnam should consider adapting its growth model and economic development structure, aiming to achieve greater growth in services and industries that consume less energy; it should also set economic growth targets for manufacturing subsectors, giving priority to the production of high-quality products such as cars, electronics, photovoltaic cells, integrated circuits and semiconductors.

What is the future of green transport?

In the report, researchers mentioned scenarios for the development of ecological transport.

Major cities in Vietnam are struggling with high air pollution, which has a negative impact on the health of the community. The growth of transportation and other business sectors is a major contributor to this situation. Required higher efficiency standards, fine dust filters and electrochemistry, along with other solutions, can help reduce the impact.

The Green Transport Strategy of Decision No 876 of 2022 sets out important criteria to advance transport towards carbon neutrality by 2050, including increasing the share of electricity and clean transport from 2025 .; and switching to public transport in larger cities.

If we assume a GDP growth scenario, demand for passenger transport in Vietnam will quadruple by 2050 and demand for freight transport will increase tenfold compared to 2019.

The scenarios designed by the researchers are tailored to meet the short-term goals of the transport sector in line with Prime Minister’s Decision 876, to be taken in 2025 and 2030. It requires that all new buses and taxis by 2025 and 2030 use non-fossil fuels respectively case of both models.

There will be big changes in the number of passenger cars and motorcycles in the future.

The report shows that there are 2.4 million cars on the road today, and most of them run on gasoline. However, by 2050, mainly electric vehicles will be on the road. In the baseline scenario, the number of cars will be 10.5 million, while in the net zero scenario the number will be 9.6 million.

In the net zero scenario, car ownership is lower due to the assumed shift from private cars to public transport (suburban rail) in large cities.

Motorcycles, which are currently the main form of private transport, will continue to play an important role in transport in Vietnam in the future. While all 48.3 million motorcycles in 2022 were petrol-powered, by 2050, around 94-97% (89-98 million motorcycles) will be electric, according to different scenarios.

The recommendation to Vietnam is that the country must rapidly electrify light transport vehicles and renewable energy vehicles in the heavy transport segment to mitigate the cost impact on the climate and environment.

The report indicated that Vietnam should focus on light electric transport, as this solution can provide high cost-efficiency. The transition to electric vehicles (electric cars, motorcycles, delivery vans and buses) can mitigate climate impacts and create opportunities to reduce medical and environmental costs related to air pollution, especially in cities.

Vietnam’s aviation sector has started using solutions to implement its net zero commitment. On May 27, Vietnam Airlines flight VN660 from Singapore to Hanoi used sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). It is the first air carrier in Vietnam to use environmentally friendly fuel.

Luong Bang