Will UK election impact visa and immigration policy? Expert says ‘tone could become hostile and toxic if…’

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are likely to face a strong challenge from the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, in the upcoming UK general election on 4 July. Immigration has become a key issue in this year’s campaign, with both main parties pledging to reduce net migration, which has reached record levels in the past two years.

Yash Dubal, director and senior immigration associate at AY & J Solicitors, London, UK, explains how the election could impact UK visa policy.

Will the change of government have any impact on people who are or will be considering emigrating to the UK to live and work?

Dubal says the tone of the immigration debate in the UK will change under the new government. Under the Conservative Party, the language around immigration had become hostile and toxic. Many potential working migrants who had seen the UK as an option were upset by what they saw and opted to move to other, friendlier countries, such as the US or Canada.

The truth is that although there are restrictions on some visa routes, the UK still provides many opportunities for people with the right skills who want to move there to work.

Other measures by the new government could potentially mean reducing staff numbers or further improving the Immigrant Pay List (ISL), which was introduced earlier this year to replace a list of occupations with labour shortages.

The new government could strengthen the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), an independent body that advises the government on immigration policy. MAC recently recommended maintaining the graduate visa route after a commissioned review, so it is likely to remain that way, meaning employers will still be able to hire graduates from overseas without having to meet salary thresholds. The government could also propose taking action against employers and recruitment agencies that abuse the immigration system, or banning those who break the rules from hiring foreign workers.

What does this mean for Indian workers?

For Indian workers, Dubal says it doesn’t have as much of an impact as it seems. The first reason is that there is an assumption that there is an untapped pool of British workers who are willing to step in, be trained and take on roles currently occupied by migrant workers.

Second, if there is an army of potential healthcare workers and construction engineers, it will take time for them to acquire the skills. For example, training to become a nurse takes at least three years on average, and to become an electrician at least two years. In the meantime, Indian workers are free to fill these roles.

According to a recent report by the education think tank Edge Foundation, the number of job vacancies in the UK doubled between 2017 and 2022 to 531,200. There is no reason to assume that this number has not increased since then. Job vacancies affected by skills shortages were most prevalent in the health and social care, business services and wholesale and retail sectors, with construction, information and communications and manufacturing showing a higher proportion of vacancies affected by skills shortages relative to overall vacancies.

“All of these sectors now need workers with the right skills, and with the exception of the wholesale and retail sectors, all of them require some level of training, most of which will last for many years,” Dubal concludes