Analysis: Wind and solar will contribute more to global energy growth than any other source in 2023

In 2023, for the first time ever, wind and solar power combined will add more new energy to the global energy mix than any other source, according to an analysis of newly released data by Carbon Brief.

However, record global energy demand pushed coal and oil consumption to new highs last year, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions hit another record high in 2023, data shows. It was the world’s first full year without the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Key data in the report includes:

• Global energy demand was set to reach a record high of 620 exajoules (EJ) in 2023, with annual growth of 2.0%, slightly above the annual average of 1.5% over the past decade.
• Wind and solar together were the largest source of new power in 2023, adding 4.9 EJ or 40% of the total increase. The remainder of the net increase came from oil (+4.8 EJ, 39% increase), coal (+2.5 EJ, 20%), nuclear (+0.4 EJ, 4%) and other non-hydro renewables (+0.5 EJ, 4%), while gas remained flat and hydro fell (-0.9 EJ, -8%).
• Global coal-fired energy consumption increased by 1.6% year-on-year to a record 164 EJ, breaking the previous record of 162 EJ set a decade earlier in 2014.
• Global consumption of energy from oil rose by 2.5% to a record 196 EJ, significantly exceeding the previous record of 193 EJ set in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic.
• Global gas energy consumption remained unchanged at 144EJ. It is currently flat for two years since the global energy crisis, due to Russia cutting off gas supplies to Europe.
• Global electricity generation from coal rose by 189 terawatt-hours (TWh, 1.8%) year-over-year to a record 10,513 TWh. This happened even as wind and solar added a record 537 TWh of new generation, for a combined increase of 15.7% year-over-year to 3,967 TWh.
• New records for coal and oil consumption have set another global emissions record, with emissions from fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, methane and flaring surpassing 40 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) for the first time.

As global temperatures approach 1.5°C, time is running out for peak and subsequent emission cuts to avoid dangerous levels of warming. New data shows the world is still heading in the wrong direction, with new records for coal, oil and CO2 emissions.

But there are signs that, beyond today’s figures for 2023, the world may be heading west as emissions from China – and the global power system – may already be peaking.

This is the second edition of the statistical review published by the Energy Institute. Carbon Brief includes previous editions published by oil giant BP in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Wind and solar energy make history

One of the most striking details of this year’s report is the fact that wind and solar power combined added more new energy to the global energy mix than any other source, as shown in the chart below.

A combined 4.9 EJ of new energy from wind and solar in 2023 accounted for 40% of the total increase in global demand, overtaking oil (39%) and coal (20%).

For the first time in history, new forms of renewable energy have overtaken all fossil fuels, which are still the world’s primary energy sources.

Annual change in global energy demand in 2023 by source, exajoules. Source: Carbon Brief Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024 analysis. Carbon Brief chart.

However, significant increases in energy demand from oil (+4.8 EJ) and coal (+2.5 EJ), shown in the graph above, resulted in a further increase in global CO2 emissions.

The decline in hydroelectric generation – also shown above – was due to severe droughts around the world in 2023, particularly in China. The shortfall was largely covered by increased coal capacity.

In addition to the still rapid expansion of wind and solar power, a rebound in hydropower generation from last year’s low is expected to contribute to a peak in global energy sector emissions.

While global demand for oil and gas is not expected to peak before the end of this decade, reducing coal use could still lead to a short-term peak in global CO2 emissions.

Record prices for coal and oil

A record 4.9 EJ of new energy added to wind and solar in 2023 continues the rapid growth of these sources over the past decade, as shown in the chart below.

Combined wind and solar now contribute 37EJ to the global energy system, up 15% year-on-year. Their combined output has grown by an average of 17% per year over the past decade, rising from just 8EJ in 2013 to 37EJ in 2023.

As the chart below shows, wind and solar overtook nuclear in 2021, and combined they will likely overtake hydro this year.

However, it is clear from the graph that the global energy system still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

Oil is the world’s largest energy source, with a new record high of 196 EJ in 2023, accounting for almost a third (32%) of the total energy mix, and its production has increased almost every year for the past half-century.

Coal comes in second, with 164EJ in 2023, or 26% of the mix. While that also represents a new record, global coal demand remains flat over the past decade. Indeed, at one point it seemed that the previous record of 162EJ in 2014 might mark a permanent peak for the fuel.

Global primary energy demand by fuel, exajoules, 1965–2023. Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Carbon Brief chart.

Interestingly, the chart above shows that global gas demand has remained flat for the past two years. While the future trajectory for the fuel remains uncertain, this recent trend illustrates why the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in late 2022 that the “golden age of gas” had ended in a global energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year.

In total, fossil fuels would meet about 81.5% of global primary energy demand in 2023, as shown in the figure below. While this is a record low, it is only about 4 percentage points lower than a decade earlier – and 5 percentage points lower than 1990 levels.

Energy Institute Chief Executive Nick Wayth told a press conference ahead of the release that the data could be interpreted to mean that the global energy transition “hasn’t even started yet”:

“At a global level, today’s new data do not provide much cause for optimism about global climate change mitigation. Clean energy still does not meet all of the growth in demand, and therefore does not displace fossil fuels at a global level. It could be argued that the transition has not even begun.”

But that interpretation masks an “uneven” picture for different parts of the world, Wayth said. “Fossil fuel demand is likely to peak” in the major economies of Europe and the U.S., he explained, even as countries in the Global South “continue to carbonize.”

Power system in motion

The energy transition has had the most dramatic impact on the global energy system so far, as the chart below shows. Wind and solar generation has increased from a combined 774 TWh in 2013 to almost 4,000 TWh in 2023 – more than five-fold in a decade.

Combined, wind and solar accounted for 13% of global electricity supplies in 2023, up from 3% a decade earlier. Yet rapidly growing electricity demand, set to accelerate with the electrification of heat, transport and industry, means coal-fired power hit a record 10,513 TWh in 2023, cementing its position as the single largest contributor to the mix.

Global electricity production by fuel, terawatt-hours, 1990–2023. Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Carbon Brief chart.

Low-carbon clean energy sources, including nuclear and renewables, now account for a record 39% of global electricity supply, overtaking coal at 35%. With gas making up another 23% of the energy mix, most of the world’s electricity is still generated from fossil fuels.

The growth of wind and solar power is expected to continue and even accelerate – especially if the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is to be achieved.

Combined with a recovery in global hydropower production following a series of severe droughts, this could force fossil fuel-based power into structural decline in 2024.

Record CO2 emissions

Taken together, record coal and oil consumption, along with steady demand for gas, means global CO2 emissions will hit a new peak in 2023, Energy Institute data shows. That’s despite record amounts of new energy added by wind and solar power.

Combined global emissions from fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, methane and flaring exceeded 40 GtCO2e for the first time in 2023, as shown in the chart below.

China’s emissions rose by 708 million tonnes of CO2e (MtCO2e, 6%) year-on-year, accounting for 85% of the global net increase (829MtCO2e). India’s emissions also rose strongly, by 257MtCO2e (9%), while the US and EU emissions fell by 140MtCO2 (2.7%) and 188MtCO2e (6.6%), respectively.

Global emissions from energy use, industrial processes, methane, and flaring, billion tons of CO2 equivalent, 1990–2023. Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024. Carbon Brief chart.

The Institute for Energy’s estimates confirm earlier analyses by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and the IEA, which showed that CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion would reach a new record in 2023.

However, GCP estimates that include CO2 emissions from land-use change suggest that in 2023 it will be just below the record set in 2019, with the total remaining roughly unchanged for a decade.

Looking ahead, a key question for global emissions is whether China has already peaked and, if so, how quickly its emissions will begin to decline. If so, this would drive further reductions in developed countries and likely outpace increases elsewhere.

Analysis by Verner Viisainen, text by Simon Evans.

Teaser image source: Envision Wind Farm Panorama in Shanxi, China. Author: Hahaheditor12667 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=44784099