Analysis of public policies to combat COVID-19 in the state of Paraná, Brazil

Temporarily accepted

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on many public sectors worldwide, requiring the implementation of public policies in an organized way to contain and control the disease. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the public policies to face the COVID-19 pandemic in the State of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: This was a cross-sectional, retrospective, quantitative study conducted on data from March 2020 to March 2022 in twenty-two municipalities that host local health regions. Data collection was documentary, carried out from the municipal website Portal da Transparência, which is dedicated to publicizing all expenditures, and epidemiological bulletins issued by the Department of Health of the State of Paraná. The variables analyzed were new cases and deaths, mortality and morbidity rates, incidence rate, vaccination coverage, number of hospital beds and intensive care units exclusively for COVID-19, expenditures allocated to COVID-19 and coping measures, namely the declaration of a public health emergency, curfew, mandatory wearing of masks, closure of businesses, telework of risk groups and suspension of activities with crowds and classes. After data collection, descriptive analysis was performed and then correlation of variables was analyzed using the Spearman test. Multiple linear regression was applied using a variable selection method called best subset selection (BSS). The dependent variables mentioned were incidence rate, new cases and new deaths. Results: The results showed that coping measures, as well as the use of resources for the pandemic, were implemented heterogeneously in the studied municipalities, and the progression of the disease, the distribution of beds and vaccinations occurred unevenly and may be a reflection of the limited Brazilian national governance. A significant correlation was observed between the incidence rate and new deaths in the case of vaccination coverage. Furthermore, the regression model showed that measures such as mandatory wearing of masks, closure of shops, suspension of classes and curfew showed significant correlations with the variables of incidence rate, cases and new deaths. Conclusion: The study highlighted the importance of conducting a solid analysis of public policies to face crises of global importance, so that government entities are prepared for future crises with serious repercussions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.