Choosing flexibility could prove to be a fatal blind spot in Africa’s transformation towards renewable energy sources

There is no longer any doubt that solar and wind will be the backbone of Africa’s future energy systems. They are ideally suited to the continent’s unique conditions and are already the most cost-competitive energy option in almost all cases. This consensus includes academia, business and policymakers, who all recognise the potential of renewable energy to sustainably meet Africa’s growing needs.

They also readily acknowledge that renewables are intermittent and that this requires flexible power on the grid to provide secure and stable supplies. This is a good start. But the real challenge is to determine which technologies are best suited to providing them and what the actual amount of flexible power needed in the system is. That is where the consensus ends.

Approaching the issue of flexibility in Africa in a pragmatic way.

Smart flexibility strategies should meet three criteria. First, flexibility must be achieved at the lowest possible cost. Second, the flexible technologies chosen to balance the grid must be proven and reliable. Third, they should provide a solid foundation for enabling the transition to 100% clean energy. In the case of flexible gas-to-power technologies, this last criterion means the ability to eventually operate on sustainable fuels when available, thus preventing long-term carbon lock-in.

There is a wide range of “dispatchable” energy technologies that could theoretically be used to balance a highly renewable grid. All of them score differently when assessed against these three eligibility criteria. This is where the body of research on Africa’s energy transition has a huge blind spot.

A recently published paper that analyzed all 54 scientific studies conducted in Africa since 2000 on the transition to 100% renewable energy found that researchers only consider zero-emission technologies, such as concentrated solar power or geothermal energy, in flexibility analyses, regardless of their insufficient efficiency, lack of reliability or excessive costs.

On the other hand, engine-balancing power plants, a technology used worldwide, were not mentioned even once, although a thorough analysis showed that they are stronger candidates on all three counts to help Africa achieve its green energy goals in the long term. They are reliable, extremely flexible and more cost-competitive than other dispatchable technologies. They also have multi-fuel capabilities, meaning they can move away from natural gas as the primary fuel and run on clean fuels such as green hydrogen as they become more widely available.

In this light, a fundamental question arises: can Africa really be deprived of technologies that can support a realistic, cost-effective and safer transformation towards clean energy?

Thinking about the big picture

Let’s stop for a moment and look at the bigger picture.

Today, almost half of Africa’s population still lacks access to electricity, while the continent accounts for only 3.8% of global emissions. The average Nigerian’s carbon footprint is estimated at 0.44 tons, which is about 35 times smaller than the average American. At the same time, we also know that many countries on the continent have vast and largely untapped gas reserves that represent a huge development opportunity if properly mobilized.

While climate action is of course an important goal for many governments in AfricaThe continent’s number one priority is to combat energy poverty. A secure and stable supply of electricity is essential for socio-economic development, and energy networks should, above all, reliably and affordably deliver sufficient electricity to people and businesses.

Understanding the Potential of Engine Balancing Technology

The smart way to 100% clean energy in Africa is a multi-decade, carefully crafted process designed to solve the grid flexibility equation. Determining the optimal path is no small task. It requires sophisticated modeling techniques that can determine the right energy mix that each country must establish to ensure that its grids always remain stable as renewable energy deployment increases. However, the models used in most academic studies related to flexibility use a day-to-day approach that fails to properly capture the rapid and sudden changes in wind and solar power and its real-world impact on day-to-day grid management. Therefore, Wartsila is based on PLEXOS, a highly advanced energy systems simulation software that has helped countries around the world develop multi-year plans to build optimal energy systems for the future.

Our modelling experts have conducted in-depth research across African countries and have revealed that the most cost-effective and reliable energy mix that most African countries can achieve is based on renewable energy as the new ‘base load’, with balancing engine technologies and demand-side assets such as energy storage providing the required flexibility.

Engine balancing is a key transition technology that can facilitate more resilient and faster electrification and significantly impact the trajectory and overall effectiveness of any renewable energy expansion plan. Aligning Africa’s development and climate goals means transitioning to clean energy sources in the long term while leveraging the continent’s resources and competitive advantages. This strategy provides a balanced approach to development and sustainability. At the end of the day, one thing is certain: without a solid flexibility plan, renewable energy will not deliver on its promise.

Scenario Marc Thiriet Africa Director at Wärtsilä Energy.