A new renewable energy crisis?

A study from the University of Michigan shows a significant shortfall in copper production needed to meet U.S. renewable energy goals, suggesting a shift toward hybrid vehicle production and a reassessment of copper allocation to balance domestic and global needs.

According to a University of Michigan study, copper mining is not progressing fast enough to meet the requirements set out in current U.S. policy guidelines for transitioning the nation’s energy infrastructure and vehicles to renewable energy.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022, requires that 100% of cars produced be electric by 2035. However, an electric vehicle requires three to five times more copper than an internal combustion engine vehicle – not to mention the required copper for power grid modernization.

“A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery-electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines this amount can be more than double,” said Adam Simon, professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of Warsaw. “In this paper we show that the amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce.”

The study analyzed 120 years of global data from copper mining companies and calculated how much copper the U.S. power infrastructure and automotive fleet would need to transition to renewable energy. It was determined that renewable energy demand for copper would exceed what copper mines can produce at current rates. The study, led by Simon and Cornell University researcher Lawrence Cathles, was published by the International Energy Forum and discussed during the webinar “Copper Mining and Vehicle Electrification.”

The shortfall is partly due to the licensing process for mining companies. According to Simon, the average time between the discovery of a new copper mineral deposit and obtaining a permit to build a mine is about 20 years.

Mining challenges and global demand

Over 100 companies operating mines on six continents engage in copper mining. The researchers pulled data on global copper production back to 1900, which showed them the global amount of copper mining companies produced over a 120-year period. They then created a model of how much copper mining companies were likely to produce by the end of the century.

Scientists have found that between 2018 and 2050, the world will need to extract 115% more copper than was mined in all of human history up to 2018 to continue “business as usual.” This would meet our current copper demand and support the developing world without taking into account the transition to green energy.

To meet copper demand for the electrification of the global vehicle fleet, as many as six new large copper mines will need to come online every year over the next few decades. About 40% of production from new mines will be needed to modernize the network related to electric vehicles.

“I am a big fan of the Inflation Reduction Act. I think it’s fantastic. I have solar panels, batteries and an electric vehicle,” Simon said. “I fully support the energy transformation. But it needs to be done in a way that is achievable.”

Instead of fully electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet, researchers suggest focusing on producing hybrid vehicles.

“We hope the study will be welcomed by policymakers, who should recognize copper as a limiting factor in the energy transition and consider how copper is allocated,” Simon said. “We know, for example, that the Toyota Prius actually has a slightly larger climate impact than a Tesla. Instead of building 20 million electric vehicles in the United States and 100 million battery electric vehicles globally each year, would it be more feasible to focus on building 20 million hybrid vehicles?”

The wider impact of copper deficiency

Scientists also point out that copper will be needed by developing countries to build infrastructure, e.g. building an electricity grid for the approximately 1 billion people who do not yet have access to electricity; providing sources of clean drinking water for the approximately 2 billion people who do not have access to clean water; and wastewater treatment for the 4 billion people who have no access to sanitation.

“Renewable energy technologies, clean water, sewage, electricity – they cannot exist without copper. As a result, there is a tension between the amount of copper needed to build infrastructure in less developed countries and the amount of copper needed for the energy transition,” Simon said.

“We believe our study highlights that significant progress can be made in reducing emissions in the United States. However, the current – almost unique – push for downstream production of renewable energy technologies cannot be met by producing copper and other metals in upstream mines without a fundamental shift in thinking about mining among environmental groups and policymakers “.