NOAA Releases 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: What to Expect

ARLINGTON, Va. (7News) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released official forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The announcement came during a press conference held on Thursday, May 23, 2024.

NOAA predicts this will be the 2024 season above the norm.

Forecasts call for an 85% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. There is a 10% chance the season will be near normal and a 5% chance it will be below normal.

Chief Meteorologist Veronica Johnson spoke with Cody Fritz, a storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Here’s a preliminary forecast of what to expect in the upcoming season.

Improvements to the cone of uncertainty

Whenever a tropical system becomes a tropical storm, it is given a name and a cone of uncertainty. Cones of uncertainty have existed since 2002 and are used solely to visually show the likely track of the center of a tropical cyclone.

While it is helpful in identifying locations that should be prepared for landfall, it has been criticized for downplaying all hurricane risks.

“Instead of just showing the hurricane track, watch and warnings along the immediate US coast, more specifically, we’re going to focus on the inland hurricane watches and warnings to kind of highlight the threats more and how they’re not only on the coast, but they also extend inland and beyond where the actual storm tracks run.”

The main goal of the update is to get people to focus more on the impacts (many of which extend far inland rather than just the coast) rather than just the path of the cone.

Inland watches and warnings

The most intense effects of a hurricane making landfall occur directly on the coast. However, the effects inland could be just as dangerous.

For this reason, the cone of uncertainty will now also include storm watches and warnings.

“Now the cone graphic will only highlight inland watches and mornings. There will be other graphics that highlight extreme rainfall or extreme storm surges, such as watches and mornings associated with these hazards,” Fritz said.

Early prediction

NOAA’s forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season are rigorous Just a forecast of the number of storms that can be expected. It does not include the strength, size, or prediction of landfall systems.

Be sure to pay attention to the weather during hurricane season, as it only takes one hurricane making landfall to cause catastrophic damage.

This summer we will be moving from El Nino to La Nina, which climatologically favors the increase of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

According to Fritz, “Another factor that will play a major role not only in the formation of tropical cyclones, but also in their intensity, is the ocean temperature in the Atlantic.”