The National Hurricane Center releases its most active preseason forecast ever

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCSC/AP) – The National Hurricane Center released what it called the most active preseason forecast in the agency’s history, calling for the start of a “hyperactive” Atlantic hurricane season.

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There is an 85% chance that the Atlantic hurricane season starting in June will feature above-average storm activity, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its annual forecast. The weather agency predicts 17 to 25 named storms will arrive this summer and fall, with 8 to 13 reaching hurricane status, which means sustained winds of at least 75 miles per hour. Four to seven of them are expected to become major hurricanes, with winds of at least 180 km/h.

Administrators with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say water temperature has a major impact on the forecast, as well as the formation of La Niña.

“This season promises to be extraordinary in many respects,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. He said this forecast is the most comprehensive in 25 years, published by NOAA in May. The agency updates its forecasts every year in August.

The forecast comes as much of the southern United States has been inundated by heavy and deluge storms in recent weeks. Dozens of cities from Texas to Central Florida are experiencing one of their wettest years on record.

When meteorologists look at how busy hurricane season is, two factors matter most: ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, where storms swirl and need warm water for fuel, and whether La Niña or El Niño occurs, the natural and periodic cooling or warming of waters the Pacific Ocean, which changes weather conditions around the world. La Niña tends to turbocharge storm activity in the Atlantic while weakening storm activity in the Pacific, and El Niño does the opposite.

La Niña tends to reduce the high-altitude winds that can decapitate hurricanes, and generally during La Niña there is more instability or turbulence in the atmosphere, which can trigger the development of hurricanes. Storms get their energy from hot water. Ocean waters have been record warm for 13 straight months, and La Niña is forecast to arrive in mid to late summer.

The current El Niño is decreasing and is expected to dissipate within about a month.

“We’ve never had a La Niña combined with such high ocean temperatures in history, so it’s a little ominous,” said Brian McNoldy, a tropical meteorology researcher at the University of Miami.

In May this year, ocean heat in the main area where hurricanes develop was as high as usual in mid-August.

“This is crazy,” McNoldy said. It’s record warm both at the ocean surface and at depths, which “looks a little scary.”

He said he wouldn’t be surprised if storms appeared earlier than usual this year as a result. The peak of hurricane season is usually mid-August to mid-October, with the official season beginning on June 1 and ending on November 30.