NOAA releases 2024 ‘major’ hurricane season forecast for Los Angeles, Texas

GAY COAST (KPEL News) – A multitude of factors combine to make the 2024 hurricane season potentially one of the worst on record, potentially impacting Louisiana, Texas and every state along the Gulf Coast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast for the 2024 hurricane season on Thursday, and the agency’s forecast for this year is the strictest on record.

“The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, a reduction in Atlantic trade winds and lower wind shear, from which all are favorable for tropical storm formation,” NOAA said in its forecast.

The agency is forecasting a total of 17 to 25 named storms (storms with winds of 39 mph or greater). They forecast that 8-13 of them will become hurricanes (winds of at least 170 km/h) and 4-7 of them will become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 180 km/h or more larger).

This forecast is the strictest forecast NOAA has ever provided in its May hurricane season update, which comes out a few days before the season officially starts (June 1).

NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a press conference Thursday that “the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May forecast.”

“As another active hurricane season approaches, NOAA’s commitment to informing every American with life-saving information is unwavering,” he also stated in the press release. “Artificial intelligence-powered language translations and a new representation of inland wind hazards in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to fulfill our mission to save lives and protect property.”

“Severe weather and emergencies can occur at any time, so individuals and communities must be prepared today,” FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said in a statement. “We are already seeing storms move through the country, which could bring additional threats such as tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape can make a difference in how people recover tomorrow.”

“Boiling” sea surface

“Sea surface temperatures were near boiling in 2023, but a strong El Niño offset last year’s season, which could have been very intense,” the University of Arizona forecast team wrote in its forecast for this year. They also noted that “according to ECMWF, projected sea surface temperatures during the peak season will be even higher than last year.”

Their forecast is in line with Colorado State University’s predictions.

The CSU, which correctly predicted a “calmer” season last year, has released its forecast for this year, and the development of the La Nina weather system means that conditions in the Atlantic and Gulf will be much more favorable this year for the development of summer storms.

Hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November, with late summer and early fall being the most active, especially in the Gulf.

The only hurricane to make major landfall in the U.S. last year was Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall in late August 2023.

La Nina, which will mean more favorable winds for hurricane development, will mix with the “warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic” to “provide a more favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

Stay safe… and prepared

Staying safe during hurricane season requires proactive action and careful planning. Prepare a comprehensive emergency kit containing water, non-perishable food, medicines and necessary documents. Familiarize yourself with local evacuation routes and be ready to evacuate if authorities order you to do so.

Stay up to date on weather conditions with reliable sources like local news and NOAA Weather Radio. Secure your home by strengthening your windows, doors and garage doors. Clean gutters and secure garden furniture to minimize potential hazards.

Establish a family communication plan so everyone knows where to go and how to contact each other in the event of a separation. Review your insurance policies to make sure they cover potential hurricane damage, considering flood insurance if necessary.

Protect important documents such as ID cards, insurance policies and medical records in waterproof containers. Be prepared for power outages by having a backup power source and charged electronic devices. Store food by having a refrigerator with ice packs.

Sign up for community alerts and warnings to stay up to date with the latest information. Use caution after a storm passes, watching out for downed power lines, unstable structures and flooded areas. To get home safely, always follow official guidance.