Aemetis (AMTX) Reports Q4 Loss, Top Revenue Estimates

Aemetis (AMTX) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.03 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.27. For comparison, a year earlier the loss was $0.68 per share. These numbers have been adjusted for one-off items.

This quarterly report presented an earnings surprise of 88.89%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this renewable fuels and specialty chemicals company would post a loss of $0.30 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.55, delivering a surprise of -83.33%.

The company has topped consensus EPS estimates twice over the last four quarters.

Aemetis, which belongs to the Zacks Biofuels industry, posted revenues of $64.36 million for the quarter ended December 2021, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.21%. For comparison, revenues from a year ago amounted to $37.33 million. Over the last four quarters, the company has topped consensus revenue estimates only once.

The sustainability of the immediate share price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will largely depend on management’s commentary on the earnings call.

Aemetis shares are up about 20.2% year-to-date compared with the S&P 500 index’s decline of -10.3%.

What’s next for Aemetis?

Although Aemetis has outperformed the market this year, the question that arises for investors is: what’s next for the stock?

There are no simple answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this issue is the company’s earnings prospects. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of the earnings release, the estimate revision trend for Aemetis is unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions may change following the company’s just-released earnings report, the current status translates into the stock’s Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Therefore, it can be expected that the company’s shares will underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the next quarters and the current fiscal year change in the coming days. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.32 on revenue of $53.5M for the coming quarter and -$2.10 on revenue of $252.12M for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be aware that the outlook for the industry may also have a significant impact on share prices. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Biofuels is currently in the bottom 23% of over 250 Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

REX (REX), another company in the same industry, is yet to report earnings for the quarter ended January 2022.

The ethanol producer is expected to post quarterly earnings per share of $4.81 per share in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of +715.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has not changed over the last 30 days.

REX revenues are expected to be $212 million, up 68.2% from the same quarter last year.

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