German automotive sector forecast to shed 90,000 jobs by 2030: strategy and research

German automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and suppliers are preparing for a significant workforce transformation that could change the industry landscape.

According to an analysis by Strategy&, a global consulting firm affiliated with PwC, Germany’s direct automotive industry, currently employing 770,000 workers, is expected to see a 12% decline in total labor demand by 2030, reducing the number of workers to 680,000.

The 90,000 job reduction is attributed to several factors, including digitalization, automation, relocation and outsourcing of processes outside Germany. Strategy&’s model predicts that around 260,000 of the 680,000 jobs will need to be refilled by 2030, representing a radical shift in workforce dynamics.

Retirement, electromobility and competition

Three main catalysts are driving this transformation. First, much of the workforce, especially baby boomers, will retire and will employ approximately 90,000 workers. Secondly, industry disruptions such as the shift towards e-mobility and software solutions will make many current roles and skill profiles obsolete, impacting around 130,000 jobs. Finally, competition from other industries and natural fluctuations have led some talent to seek opportunities elsewhere, resulting in an estimated 40,000 job openings.

Meeting the challenges of automation and changing role requirements requires proactive action. While traditional tools such as graduate recruitment, retaining apprentices and attracting talent from alternative sectors remain viable options, the need to reskill current workers is of paramount importance. Strategy& suggests reskilling initiatives in areas such as battery engineering, software development and artificial intelligence to mitigate the impact of job cuts.

Mitigating the crisis

Despite the use of these traditional levers, the Strategy& model indicates that around 60,000 positions could remain unfilled in Germany by 2030. To fill this talent gap, Strategy& advocates for a comprehensive approach called the “6B approach”: Build, Buy, Bind, Borrow, Bot, and Opportunity.

‘Build’ and ‘buy’ measures focus on strengthening the workforce through upskilling and recruitment activities, while ‘linkage’ measures aim to retain high-potential talent by improving the attractiveness of the workplace. Additionally, to reduce the need for new talent, strategic partnerships with agencies and external talent providers (borrowing), automation of manual processes (bot), and negotiation of regulatory requirements (opportunity) are recommended.

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“90,000 jobs expected to become vacant in the German automotive sector by 2030: strategy and research” was originally created and published by Motor Finance Online, a brand of GlobalData.

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