Forrester: Global e-commerce will reach $7 trillion by 2028

E-commerce spending in the U.S. will reach $1.6 trillion in 2028.

Forrester’s new forecast is optimistic about the growth trajectory of e-commerce over the next four years.

According to Forrester The Global Retail E-commerce Forecast 2024 to 2028 report shows that total global online retail sales will grow to $6.8 trillion by 2028 from $4.4 trillion in 2023, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%.

In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales. E-commerce is more mature in the U.S. compared to Canada, with Forrester predicting online retail sales in Canada will reach $83 billion by 2028. Forrester says Canada lags the United States in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density, smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption.

Despite the overall growth of e-commerce, 76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales will still be offline in 2028, including $4.2 trillion According to Forrester in the USA. As a result, the report recommends that retailers continue to invest in omnichannel strategies that provide seamless shopping experiences both online and offline.

The report further stated that e-commerce retail maturity varies across the world. Advanced economies including the US, UK and South Korea are more mature due to greater internet penetration and digital skills.

However, as smartphones and mobile commerce become more widespread, Forrester recommends that emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America catch up, offering new e-commerce opportunities for businesses and consumers.

Global attractions

• In Latin America, online retail sales in the six largest countries – Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and Chile – will grow from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion in 2028.
• In Western European countries – including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK – online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration increasing from 15% to 20%. The UK will remain the largest e-commerce retail market, followed by Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
• In Eastern Europe, online retail penetration is half that in Western Europe. Forrester forecasts that online retail sales in the five largest countries in Eastern Europe – Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary – will grow from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with the region leading Russia and Poland.
• In the Asia-Pacific region, online retail sales in the five largest countries – China, South Korea, Japan, India and Australia – are expected to grow from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028, with China being the leader in the region. China and South Korea are the two countries with the highest e-commerce penetration in the world, and by 2028, online retail penetration in each will be over 40%.
• In Southeast Asia’s six largest countries – Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore – e-commerce retail sales reached $93 billion in 2023 and will grow to $193 billion by 2028, accounting for 17.4 % of total retail sales. Indonesia leads the region in terms of online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam will grow at a CAGR of over 20% over the next five years, outperforming other countries in the region.

“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, live streaming and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, the maturity and growth opportunities of e-commerce vary significantly by region. To be successful, retailers and brands must therefore thoroughly understand the key retail and e-commerce growth drivers in their priority markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.”

(Read more: Global e-commerce revenues will reach a record amount of PLN 3.64 thousand. dollars in 2024)