Ciena’s (CIEN) second-quarter earnings are expected to decline

The market expects Ciena (CIEN) to report a year-over-year earnings decline on lower revenues in its report for the quarter ended April 2024. This widely known consensus outlook is important in assessing a company’s performance picture, but it is a factor that can impact a company’s short-term share price is the comparison of actual results with estimates.

Shares could move higher if these key numbers meet expectations in the upcoming earnings report, due on June 6. On the other hand, if these key numbers are not met, the stock could fall.

While management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings call will largely determine the sustainability of immediate price action and future earnings expectations, it’s worth having partial insight into the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The high-speed networking technology developer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of -79.7%.

Revenue is expected to be $896.62 million, down 20.8% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate the trend of change

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has not changed over the last 30 days. This generally reflects how the analysts covering a given study collectively re-evaluated their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the direction of each analyst’s estimate revisions will not always be reflected in the aggregate change.

Whisper about earnings

Revisions to estimates prior to a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are expected to be released. Our proprietary surprise prediction model, the Zacks Earnings ESP, is based on this insight.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is the newer version of the Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks in this combination deliver a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of its Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative earnings ESP reading does not mean a loss of earnings. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative ESP readings and/or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How have the numbers changed for Ciena?

For Ciena, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings prospects. This resulted in an earnings ESP of -26.12%.

On the other hand, the stock currently sports a Zacks Rank of #4.

So this combination makes it difficult to confidently predict that Ciena will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of surprising results have any clue?

When calculating estimates of a company’s future earnings, analysts often consider how well the company has been able to match previous estimates. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming issue.

For the last reported quarter, Ciena was expected to post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.66, representing a surprise of +40.43%.

The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters.

Bottom line

Improving or lacking earnings may not be the only basis for a stock’s value rising or falling. Many stocks lose value despite good earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite losing profits.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed earnings expectations increases your chances of success. Therefore, it is worth checking the company’s Earnings Rank and Zacks Rank before their quarterly release. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

Ciena doesn’t seem like a compelling candidate to beat earnings. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors if they want to bet on or stay away from these stocks ahead of an earnings release.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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