Scientists say no new fossil fuel projects are needed to transition to Net Zero

Existing fossil fuel projects will be enough to meet projected energy demand as part of the global transition to net zero emissions, according to a new study by scientists from UCL and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

Their strategy paper, published in Science, argues that halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step for countries to meet their climate goals. It recommends that governments enact laws banning new fossil fuel projects because this is easier politically, economically and legally than shutting down operational projects early.

Scientists analyzed projected future global demand for oil and gas production and coal and gas power generation under a range of modeled scenarios that limit climate change to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The team found that existing fossil fuel capacity is sufficient to meet energy demand in these scenarios as the planet transitions to clean and renewable energy, and that new fossil fuel projects are not necessary.

The study follows the work of the International Energy Agency, which in a 2021 report (updated in 2023) concluded that no new fossil fuel extraction projects are needed to transition to net zero emissions by 2050.

The research team’s new work expands on this topic by examining a wide range of scenarios developed for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report that limit climate change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Their analysis showed that, in addition to there being no need to extract new fossil fuels, no new coal- and gas-fired energy production was needed.

The research appears at a time of growing contradictions between rhetoric and practice regarding the energy transition. In December 2023, at COP28, UN member countries announced that they had agreed in principle to work towards “phasing out fossil fuels in energy systems.”

However, since this proclamation, global production and use of fossil fuels has continued to increase, with many governments and fossil fuel industry players arguing that new fossil fuel projects will be needed during the transition to Net Zero. A new UCL–IISD study refutes this claim.

The researchers then recommend a “no new fossil fuels” policy, which would mean preventing new projects to explore and extract any deposits of coal, oil or natural gas. It would also prevent the construction of any new fossil fuel power plants.

Synthesizing evidence from economics, political science, and law, the authors see advantages to this approach in terms of transition feasibility: pausing new projects is less costly, involves fewer legal hurdles, and is politically easier than trying to retire existing capacity early.

By drawing lessons from historical processes of changing socio-moral norms, researchers have found that governments by banning new fossil fuel projects, and civil society by advocating for such bans, can help build a global norm against new fossil fuel projects.

Lead author Dr Fergus Green (UCL Department of Political Science) said: “Our study draws lessons from past changes in global ethical norms such as slavery and nuclear weapons testing. These cases show that norms resonate when they make simple demands on which powerful actors can be immediately held accountable.

“Complex, long-term goals like ‘net zero emissions by 2050’ lack these features, but ‘no new fossil fuel projects’ is a clear and immediate demand against which all current governments and the fossil fuel industry can rightly be judged.” is to serve as a litmus test of whether the government is serious about tackling climate change: if it allows new fossil fuel projects, it is not serious.”

Co-author Dr Steve Pye (UCL Institute of Energy) said: “Importantly, our study shows that the proposed standard has a rigorous scientific basis, showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel designs. The clarity this standard provides should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable energy and clean energy investments, while managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in a fair and equitable manner.”

Co-author Greg Muttitt (senior associate, IISD) said: “Our research is based on a wide range of scientific evidence, including IPCC climate scenarios, but its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple: there is no room for new projects on fossil fuels in a world that has achieved the 1.5°C target. Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement means governments must stop issuing permits for new energy exploration, production or generation projects.

Co-author Olivier Bois von Kursk (Policy Advisor, IISD) stated: “No new fossil fuel projects are necessary to meet 1.5°C energy demand. Representative 1.5°C scenarios show that much of the existing fossil fuel capital stock will be stranded if we are to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

“Setting a ‘Ban New Fossil Fuels’ standard increases the likelihood of staying within 1.5°C while minimizing the economic, political and legal challenges of ‘locking in’ fossil fuel production capacity.”