Barrick Gold (GOLD) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can This Continue?

It’s been about a month since Barrick Gold’s (GOLD) last earnings report. Shares are up about 3.4% in that time.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Barrick Gold headed for a decline? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let’s take a quick look at the company’s most recent earnings report in order to better understand the important catalysts.

Barrick’s first quarter earnings beat estimates, revenues fall short

Barrick reported net income (based on reports) of $295 million, or 17 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2024. This improved from $120 million, or 7 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 19 cents. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16 cents.

Barrick reported total sales of $2,747 million, up 4% year-over-year. This figure is under the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,932 million.

Operational highlights

Total gold production for the quarter was 940,000 ounces, down approximately 1.3% year over year. Our estimate was 963,000 ounces. The average realized gold price was $2,075 per ounce for the quarter, up approximately 9% year-over-year. For comparison, our estimate is $1,979.

Cost of sales increased approximately 3.4% year-over-year to $1,425 per ounce. AISC increased approximately 7.6% year-over-year to $1,474 per ounce in the quarter.

Copper production remained stable year on year and amounted to 40,000. tone. The average realized copper price was $3.86 per pound, down 8% year-over-year.

Financial position

At the end of the quarter, Barrick had cash and cash equivalents of $3,942 million, down 10% year over year. At the end of the quarter, the company’s total debt was $4,725 million, down 1% year over year.

Operating cash flow was $760 million for the quarter and free cash flow was $32 million.

Conductivity

Barrick predicts attributable gold production in 2024 to be in the range of 3.9-4.3 million ounces.

AISC is expected to trade between $1,320 and $1,420 per ounce. Cash cost per ounce is expected to be $940-$1,020. The company also expects selling costs of $1,320 to $1,420 per ounce.

The company expects copper production of 180,000-210,000 tonnes at an AISC of $3.10-3.40 per pound, cash costs per pound of $2-2.30 and cost of sales of $2.65-2 $.95 per pound.

Capital expenditures are forecast for 2024 in the range of USD 2,500 to USD 2,900 million.

How have estimates changed since then?

Investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimate revisions over the last month.

As a result of these changes, the consensus estimate moved by 16.91%.

VGM results

At this point, Barrick Gold’s average growth rate is C, but its Momentum Score is doing much better at A. Plotting a somewhat similar path, the stock is given a grade of B on the value side, placing it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the company’s Total VGM Score is A. If you’re not focused on one strategy, this score should interest you.

Perspectives

Estimates for this company generally show an upward trend, and the scale of these corrections looks promising. It’s no surprise that Barrick Gold has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above-average rate of return on shares in the coming months.

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