Uncertain times for South Africa’s foreign policy as head of the coalition government

(MENAFN – Conversation) After South Africa’s May 29 elections, the African National Congress lost the electoral majority it had held for 30 years, but remains the party with the largest number of seats in parliament. This makes it a key partner in forming a coalition government.

For 30 years, the ANC had a comfortable majority that allowed it to shape policy at home and abroad. Recently, the outgoing administration’s approach to foreign policy has become more assertive. She sought to negotiate peace in the Russia-Ukraine war and brought a genocide case to the International Court of Justice against Israel’s invasion of Gaza. While the move against Israel was popular, it may have divided South Africans, with some more concerned about the economy while others support Israel.

With 40% of the seats in national parliaments, the ANC will have to negotiate its political position with its coalition partner or partners. The three main contenders for a partnership with the ANC are the Democratic Alliance, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters. The parties rank second, third and fourth in terms of seats in parliament.

As a political scientist who has studied the links between South Africa’s electoral politics and its engagement with the changing global order, I expect South Africa’s foreign policy to be one of the bargaining points as the ANC engages various potential coalition partners.

This is important because over the last three decades, the international community has learned about South Africa’s position on major geopolitical issues. In particular, the country has played a key role in changing the balance of world power, thanks in part to its membership in the Brics group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. As of January 1, 2024, five new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) joined Brics.

South Africa also sought to be the voice of Africa and the broader South. This has been especially the case since the Covid-19 pandemic, when she spoke out against what she called vaccine apartheid.

Based on the election results, the ANC’s most likely coalition partners are the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 21.7% of the vote, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) with 14.66% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 9.47%.

By analyzing party manifestos and leadership statements, I assessed how they might attempt to influence the direction of foreign policy. This analysis shows that the ANC faces three broad choices: the pro-Western Democratic Alliance, the Economic Freedom Fighters party, which is more revisionist than the ANC itself, and the uMkhonto weSizwe party, which largely reflects the ANC’s own foreign policy position. but is staunchly opposed to the current ANC leader and has contributed to the ANC’s percentage falling below 50%.

Democratic Alliance

The two issues that are most likely to be a point of contention for the Democratic Alliance are the ANC government’s attitude towards Israel and its relationship with Russia.

In its election program, the Democratic Alliance lists seven priorities. These are all internal matters. Nevertheless, the statements of its leaders and parliamentarians point to a decidedly pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian party. He is moderate towards Israel and skeptical towards the Brics group.

After the Brics 2023 summit in South Africa in August 2023, Emma Louise Powell, the Democratic Party’s foreign minister, criticized the group, calling it “an increasingly unholy alliance” and the summit a waste of money.

Party leader John Steenhuisen also visited Ukraine and expressed solidarity with Kiev.

On the Israeli-Palestinian issue, the party removed an MP from its shadow cabinet for expressing a pro-Palestinian position. And Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen refuses to call Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza an act of genocide, saying:

uMkhonto weSizwe Party and Economic Freedom Fighters

In its manifesto, the Economic Freedom Fighters Party advocates greater continental integration. This includes the free movement of people.

According to its leader Julius Malema, it not only supports the Palestinians but also supports handing over weapons to Hamas.

The manifesto of the uMkhonto weSizwe party is more balanced. He envisions a government that would do just that

The manifesto expresses solidarity with Russia, Cuba and Palestine

The party is also calling for a review of international agreements and understandings, including South Africa’s membership of the International Criminal Court – ostensibly to restore South Africa’s sovereignty.

It also calls on South Africa to do so

This ANC setting shouldn’t come as a surprise. Much of the ANC’s current foreign policy (including entry into Brics) was developed under Jacob Zuma as president (2009–2018). However, the party is scathing in its assessment of Cyril Ramaphosa’s government’s foreign policy.

Her manifesto states so

It may also explain why some of its leading figures have said they will not form a coalition with the ANC led by Zuma’s nemesis Ramaphosa. The statement still leaves the door open to a coalition with the ANC should it decide to dismiss Ramaphosa.

The country would therefore see greater foreign policy continuity under an ANC-uMkhonto weSizwe coalition, while a government of the ANC-Democratic Alliance or the ANC-uMkhonto weSizwe Economic Freedom Front would experience serious disagreements that would threaten stability.

This is particularly important considering that foreign policy is no longer handled by the Department of International Relations and Cooperation alone. Virtually every government department has a foreign affairs office.

This decentralization of foreign policy also means that there could be significant disagreements even if the ANC managed to keep the department to itself.

The Democratic Alliance and the ANC had previously disagreed when alliance member Solly Msimanga, then the newly elected mayor of Tshwane, visited Taiwan in December 2016. The ANC, which recognizes China’s claim to sovereignty over the island, expressed its dissatisfaction with the visit, and the caucus in Tshwane he called it high treason.”

In a national coalition government, such moves would bring instability.

Domestic and foreign policy

Domestic policy is also important to foreign engagement. The outcome of the election will affect not only South Africa’s attitude towards the world, but also how the country is perceived by the outside world.

In recent years, the ANC government has struggled to attract foreign direct investment (down by R54.5 billion, or about $2.9 billion, in 2023, according to the Reserve Bank), partly due to corruption, power outages and a perceived lack of competitiveness arose from post-1994 racial equality and labor law.

This will be influenced by the ANC’s choice of coalition partner. If he gets into bed with the Democratic Alliance, it will signal a pro-market attitude. However, if it merges with smaller parties, it will likely result in a renewed emphasis on policies that ensure greater equality in the country.

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