Device refresh cycles and the emergence of AI-enabled computers will drive moderate PC growth in 2024, according to IDC.

NEEDHAM, Mass., June 3, 2024 – The global market for traditional PCs is expected to remain flat in 2024, with shipments reaching 260.2 million units, despite the improving economic situation and the emergence of a new category of desktop computers with built-in neural processing units (NPUs), commonly called PCs AI, by International Data Corporation (IDC) Global Quarterly Personal Device Tracker. The global outlook will be hampered by China as the country’s economy faces many challenges and inventories will remain elevated in the near term. Excluding China, the personal computer market is forecast to grow by 2.6% year-on-year in 2024, while the recovery of the personal computer market in China is not expected to occur earlier than the second half of 2025.

For the rest of the world, PC shipments in 2024 will depend on several converging factors:

• Educational offer refresh cycle – 29.6 million PCs enter this market. Although budgets are no longer as large as during the pandemic, many PCs purchased during the pandemic are due for a refresh. Lower budgets, however, mean that the refresh cycle will be spread out over many years, rather than a huge jump in a short period of time as happened during the pandemic.
• The Windows refresh cycle is about to begin as the end of support for Windows 10 at the end of 2025 is expected to result in PC updates starting in the second half of 2024.
• In the consumer market, IDC predicts an overall shipment decline of 1.1% in 2024. However, the consumer market will grow 1.6% year-over-year if China is excluded. Increased interest rates, coupled with demand for other devices such as smartphones, are expected to slow growth in this segment.

Outside of refresh cycles, AI PCs based on recently released Qualcomm silicon, as well as newer AMD and Intel parts arriving later this year, are expected to drive shipment growth in the near future. However, in the long term, AI-enabled computers are unlikely to impact shipment volumes, but are expected to increase average selling prices (ASPs).

“While the hype around AI on devices may seem somewhat misplaced due to the lack of well-defined use cases for business and enterprise users, these devices will bring with them a momentous change in computing, offering content generation and increased productivity over the next few years.” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “However, consumer adoption will likely take longer because educating users on the benefits of on-device AI versus cloud-based solutions will not be a simple task.”

“Microsoft has gained momentum in the PC AI race with its recent announcements at Build,” added Linn Huang, research vice president for devices and displays at IDC. “These announcements are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the industry’s long-term vision for AI-enabled PCs: devices that automate, empower and inspire users through the use of generative AI. Ultimately, artificial intelligence will be ubiquitous on personal computers. Meanwhile, we are seeing the number of AI-enabled PCs (defined here as those with NPUs) increase from about one in five this year to almost two in every three shipped in 2028.”

Comments:

• Traditional PCs include desktops, notebooks, and workstations, but do not include tablets or x86 servers. Detachable tablets and Slate tablets are part of the personal device tracker but are not discussed in this press release.
• Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are included in the company/brand under which they are sold.

IDC’s global quarterly personal device tracker collects detailed market data in over 90 countries. The study includes, among other things, the analysis of historical trends and forecasts.

For more information or to enroll in the study, contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 or [email protected].

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International Data Corporation (IDC) is a leading global provider of market information, advisory services and events for the information technology, telecommunications and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional and local expertise in technology, benchmarking and IT acquisition, as well as industry opportunities and trends in more than 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insights help IT professionals, enterprise executives and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve key business goals. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading technology media, data and marketing services company. More information about IDC can be found at www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

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