Only 14 countries have included explicit renewable capacity targets for 2030: report

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that very few countries have clearly set 2030 targets for installed capacity in their existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

As many as 14 of the 194 nationally determined contributions include explicit targets for total renewable energy capacity for 2030.

According to the report, ambitious renewable capacity targets for 2030 across all NDC countries total just over 1,300 gigawatts (GW), representing just 12 percent of the global tripling commitment, which requires an installed renewable capacity of at least 11,000 GW by 2030 .

However, covering around 150 countries, governments’ national ambitions were seen to go much further, accounting for almost 8,000 GW of global installed renewable capacity by 2030.

While countries have great scope to align their NDCs with their current national ambitions, countries also need to accelerate implementation. At the same time, countries need to raise their ambitions to achieve the Triple Goal.

“At COP28, almost 200 countries committed to tripling the world’s renewable energy capacity this decade, one of the key actions to maintain hope of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. “What is clear from this report is that the triple target is ambitious but achievable – but only if governments quickly turn promises into action plans,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

He added: “By meeting the goals agreed at COP28 – including tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 – countries around the world have a huge opportunity to accelerate progress towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable energy system.”

How is India doing?

India aims to have 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, including around 485 GW of renewable energy – 2.6 times more than in 2022. Current plans show India leading ambitions for regional renewable capacity , accounting for almost half of deliveries in 2023–2030.

It aims to cover most of the growing electricity demand with renewable energy and achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity (including nuclear) by 2030, which translates into approximately 485 GW of renewable energy (293 GW of photovoltaic energy, 100 GW of wind, 78 GW of hydropower and 15 GW of bioenergy).

The country, which already had the third largest domestic renewable energy market in 2018–2022, plans to further increase its installed renewable capacity by a factor of 2.6 by 2030.

However, expanding an already large market can be a difficult task, requiring overcoming new obstacles such as decreasing land availability and increasingly complex system integration challenges.

To overcome these potential obstacles, India is already implementing policies to encourage the development of hybrid renewable power plants; presenting long-term plans for large auction volumes; and supporting the repowering of existing wind farms in the most appropriate locations.

Commenting on this, Viral Thakker, Partner, Sustainability and Climate Leader at Deloitte South Asia, said this progress is driven by robust public-private partnerships and interventions such as the Green Indian Railways project, capacity development in green hydrogen and significant investments in solar and wind energy.

“At COP28, India reaffirmed its commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 and reduce carbon intensity by 45 per cent, aiming to achieve 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 from the current 130 GW. “This progress is driven by robust public-private partnerships and interventions such as the Green Indian Railways project, green hydrogen capacity development and significant investments in solar and wind energy,” he said.

Further, Thakker added, “These efforts have been further supported by financial incentives, network infrastructure improvements, increased carbon sequestration forest cover, and increasing the share of electricity generation capacity from non-fossil fuels from 43% to 50% by 2030, thereby transforming India into a global leader in climate action and sustainable economic development.”