What to know before next week’s publication

The market expects Bank of NT Butterfield & Son (NTB) to report year-on-year profit growth on the back of higher revenues in its report for the quarter ended September 2022. This well-known consensus outlook is important when assessing a company’s earnings picture, but an important factor that can impact a company’s near-term share price is how actual results compare to estimates.

Shares could move higher if these key numbers meet expectations in the upcoming earnings report, due on October 31. On the other hand, if these key numbers are not met, the stock could fall.

While the sustainability of the immediate price movement and future earnings expectations will largely depend on management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings call, it is worth limiting the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The community bank is expected to post quarterly earnings per share of $1.11 in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of +38.8%.

Revenue is expected to be $140.45 million, up 12.6% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate the trend of change

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upwards by 6.81% over the last 30 days to the current level. This broadly reflects how analysts covering the data have collectively re-evaluated their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the direction of each analyst’s estimate revisions will not always be reflected in the aggregate change.

Whisper about earnings

Revisions to estimates prior to a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are expected to be released. This insight is at the heart of our proprietary surprise prediction model, the Zacks Earnings ESP.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is a newer revision of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks in this combination deliver a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of its Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative earnings ESP reading does not mean a loss of earnings. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative ESP readings and/or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How have the numbers changed for Bank of NT Butterfield & Son?

For Bank of NT Butterfield & Son, the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which suggests there are no recent analyst views that differ from those used as the basis for the consensus estimate. This resulted in an earnings ESP of 0%.

On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks Rank of #1.

So this combination makes it difficult to confidently predict that Bank of NT Butterfield & Son will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of surprising results have any clue?

When calculating future earnings estimates, analysts often consider how well a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming issue.

For the last quarter, it was expected that Bank of NT Butterfield & Son would post earnings of $0.92 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.01, delivering a surprise of +9.78%.

The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters.

Bottom line

Improving or lacking earnings may not be the sole basis for a stock’s value rising or falling. Many stocks lose value despite good earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite losing profits.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed earnings expectations increases your chances of success. Therefore, it is worth checking the company’s Earnings Rank and Zacks Rank before their quarterly release. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

Bank of NT Butterfield & Son doesn’t seem like a compelling earnings beat candidate. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors if they want to bet on or stay away from these stocks ahead of an earnings release.

Expected results of an industry player

Deutsche Bank (DB), another stock of the Zacks Banks – International Industry, is expected to post earnings per share of $0.40 for the quarter ended September 2022. These estimates indicate a year-over-year change of +135.3%. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be $6.16 billion, down 13.5% from the same quarter last year.

The consensus EPS estimate for Deutsche Bank has been revised down 10% over the last 30 days to its current level. However, the equal most accurate estimate gave an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

This earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), makes it difficult to firmly predict that Deutsche Bank will surpass the consensus EPS estimate. The company has topped consensus EPS estimates twice over the last four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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