Lino, the Prime Minister will have to walk

NEW DELHI – Giving Prime Minister Narendra Modi a third term is a milestone in his political career. With a mandate of just 240 seats, less than the 272 required for independent rule, he currently heads a coalition government with allies from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

His survival will depend on his partners. The NDA is a political coalition of center-right parties led by the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The seats provided by allies gave the NDA coalition the numbers it needed to govern.

This situation is new for Modi. For a leader who believes in the centralization of power, forming a coalition government, with its inherent complexity and power-sharing dynamics, is challenging.

This change could significantly alter the course of his political agenda.

It could also lead to a softening of his religious-nationalist stance and a greater emphasis on policies that appeal to the coalition’s diverse partners.

However, Modi 3.0 is expected to continue his policies of economic reforms, national security and social welfare.

India is not new to coalitions; has a checkered history of multi-party rule.

Former Prime Minister and BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee also led an unprecedented 24-party alliance from 1998 to 2004.

Dealing with coalition partners may be difficult as the prime minister faces a more influential opposition.

There will be other challenges as well. There will be questions about the scope of Modi’s power.

New political circumstances have emerged in which the party’s main allies, the NDA, now play a key role in the ruling coalition.

The first major hurdle was forming a government, which required him to deal with the complexities of coalition politics.

He seems to have managed this with relative comfort.

Maintaining an assertive and independent political style may take time and effort.

The next step is to allocate portfolios that satisfy allies.

Both Nitish Kumar and N. Chandrababu Naidu are tough negotiators and will demand large purses.

Smaller allies will assert their influence by shaping government policy and decisions and seeking to oversee key ministries.

The main challenge is maintaining the consistency of the NDA.

Rumors suggest that the rival coalition in India wanted to lure the JD(U) and TDP to form the government.

Such moves, if taken, may lead to a reorientation of political forces, upsetting the balance of power in the coalition and influencing the government’s policy and decisions.

Whether Modi’s allies in the NDA will remain loyal is the million-dollar question.

This uncertainty, rooted in their unreliability, adds a layer of tension. Some of the BJP’s allies like TDP, Shiv Sena, AIADMK and Akali Dal have ended their cooperation over the last decade. In 2018, TDP left the alliance as Andhra Pradesh was not given special category status. Now the TDP and JD(U) are working with the BJP again.

Earlier breaks in the partnership did not affect the government.

However, in future, Modi will have to always keep in mind the sentiments of important allies like TDP and JD(U).

Both Naidu and Nitish Kumar, who hold 28 seats between them and are described as “kingmakers”, have long been advocating for special status for their states.

Nitish Kumar, known by his frequent nicknames as “Palti Kumar”, ended his association with the BJP in 2014 over the issue of the BJP recognizing Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.

He later joined the NDA and in 2022 broke again with the BJP to form a government with the RJD.

This year he returned to NDA.

Passing legislation on more ambitious aspects of the government’s reform program may be challenging due to coalition politics and a weakened mandate.

This could slow down policy implementation, leading to a reassessment of the government’s reform program.

Although it does not have a majority, the opposition will have enough members on parliamentary committees to prevent controversial bills from being passed.

This means that Modi’s ability to push the BJP’s agenda will be compromised.

Important initiatives such as the Uniform Civil Code and the One Nation Poll may be delayed.

Changes in political alliances are to be expected.

While the INDIA bloc will continually look for chinks in the NDA’s armor, Modi will also look to transform his minority government into a majority government in the coming days.

Initially, however, the Prime Minister will have to walk a tightrope.