What to look for

Argo Group (ARGO) is expected to report a year-on-year decline in earnings on higher revenues in its report for the quarter ended March 2020. This widely known consensus outlook paints a good picture of the company’s earnings, but how actual results compare to these estimates is a significant factor that could impact the near-term share price.

Shares could rise if these key numbers beat expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock could fall.

While the sustainability of the immediate price movement and future earnings expectations will largely depend on management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings call, it is worth limiting the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The property and casualty insurer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of -62.7%.

Revenue is expected to be $481.50 million, up 5.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate the trend of change

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 13.11% down to the current level over the last 30 days. This broadly reflects how analysts covering the data have collectively re-evaluated their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the direction of each analyst’s estimate revisions will not always be reflected in the aggregate change.

Price, consensus and EPS surprise

Whisper about earnings

Revisions to estimates prior to a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are expected to be released. Our proprietary surprise prediction model, the Zacks Earnings ESP, is based on this insight.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is a newer revision of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information that could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks in this combination deliver a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of its Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative earnings ESP reading does not mean a loss of earnings. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative ESP readings and/or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How have the numbers changed for Argo Group?

For Argo Group, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings prospects. This resulted in an earnings ESP of -22.14%.

On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks Rank of 5.

So this combination makes it difficult to confidently predict that Argo Group will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of surprising results have any clue?

When calculating estimates of a company’s future earnings, analysts often consider how well the company has been able to match previous estimates. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming issue.

For the last quarter, it was expected that Argo Group would post a loss of $2.18 per share when it actually produced a loss of $2.15, delivering a surprise of +1.38%.

The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters.

Bottom line

Improving or lacking earnings may not be the only basis for a stock’s value rising or falling. Many stocks lose value despite good earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite losing profits.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed earnings expectations increases your chances of success. Therefore, it is worth checking the company’s Earnings Rank and Zacks Rank before their quarterly release. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

Argo Group does not seem to be a convincing candidate to beat profits. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors if they want to bet on or stay away from these stocks ahead of an earnings release.

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