What to look for

The market expects Wells Fargo (WFC) to report a year-over-year profit decline with lower revenues in its report for the quarter ended June 2022. This widely known consensus outlook is important in assessing a company’s earnings picture, but the most important factor that can impact a company’s near-term share price is how actual results compare to estimates.

The earnings report, due on July 15, 2022, could help the stock climb higher if these key numbers are better than expected. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock could fall.

While the sustainability of the immediate price movement and future earnings expectations will largely depend on management’s discussion of business conditions during the earnings call, it is worth limiting the likelihood of a positive EPS surprise.

Zacks Consensus Estimate

The largest U.S. mortgage lender is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.84 per share in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of -39.1%.

Revenue is expected to be $17.74 billion, down 12.5% ​​from the year-ago quarter.

Estimate the trend of change

The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.24% down to the current level over the last 30 days. This broadly reflects how analysts covering the data have collectively re-evaluated their initial estimates during this period.

Investors should note that the aggregate change does not necessarily reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each major analyst.

Whisper about earnings

Revisions to estimates prior to a company’s earnings release provide an indication of business conditions in the period in which the earnings are expected to be released. Our proprietary surprise prediction model, the Zacks Earnings ESP, is based on this insight.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is a newer revision of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information that could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates. However, the predictive power of the model is only significant for positive ESP readings.

A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when paired with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks in this combination deliver a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of its Earnings ESP.

Please note that a negative earnings ESP reading does not mean a loss of earnings. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative ESP readings and/or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).

How have the numbers changed for Wells Fargo?

For Wells Fargo, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings prospects. This resulted in an earnings ESP of -11.31%.

On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks Rank of #3.

So this combination makes it difficult to confidently predict that Wells Fargo will beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Does the history of surprising results have any clue?

When calculating estimates of a company’s future earnings, analysts often consider how well the company has been able to match previous estimates. So it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming issue.

For the last reported quarter, Wells Fargo was expected to post earnings of $0.81 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.88, representing a surprise of +8.64%.

The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times over the last four quarters.

Bottom line

Improving or lacking earnings may not be the only basis for a stock’s value rising or falling. Many stocks lose value despite good earnings because of other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help many stocks gain despite losing profits.

That said, betting on stocks that are expected to exceed earnings expectations increases your chances of success. Therefore, it is worth checking the company’s Earnings Rank and Zacks Rank before their quarterly release. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

Wells Fargo doesn’t seem like a compelling candidate to beat earnings. However, investors should also pay attention to other factors if they want to bet on or stay away from these stocks ahead of an earnings release.

Expected results of an industry player

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is expected to (JPM), another Zacks Banks – major regional industry stock, is expected to post earnings per share of $2.80 for the quarter ended June 2022. These estimates indicate a year-on-year change of -25.9%. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be $31.24 billion, up 2.5% from the same quarter last year.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for JPMorgan Chase & Co. was revised by 0.1% to the current level. Nevertheless, the company currently has an Earnings ESP of 3.88%, which reflects a higher most accurate estimate.

Combined with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), this ESP indicates that JPMorgan Chase & Co. will most likely beat consensus EPS estimates. The company has topped consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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