Weather-related damage to solar assets exceeds modeling expectations by 300% – pv magazine USA

June 11, 2024 Ryan Kennedy

The report of kWh Analytics, a climate insurance provider, has been published on the 6thvol annual solar risk assessment report, providing a data-driven overview of the risks to solar assets. The report included comments from solar industry leaders in technology, financing and insurance.

“To achieve renewable energy deployment goals, the focus must be on smart growth – relying on data to drive decisions and leveraging resiliency measures to protect assets,” said Jason Kaminsky, CEO of kWh Analytics.

The report identified 14 risks to be aware of in the solar industry, including extreme weather risks and operational risks. This year, for the first time, the risks associated with storing energy in batteries were taken into account. This message covers extreme weather threats, and subsequent articles discuss operational and storage risks.

Modeling assumptions underestimate weather damage losses by 300% or more

Data from kWh Analytics showed that modeling the risk of damage from weather events has been greatly overlooked. Particularly in large solar markets such as California, Texas and Arizona, actual ground losses due to weather events were as high as 300% or more compared to asset owner models.

kWh Analytics found that because solar is a relatively new asset class, natural disaster models typically used to set insurance premiums often rely on proxy structures to estimate losses. The company said more accurate PV-specific modeling is needed and differences in technologies used (e.g. hail-protected trackers) should be taken into account in risk modeling.

The insurer has developed new models using location-specific risk, supported by data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), significant loss data and satellite imagery to provide a more accurate risk assessment.

The modules function well after significant cell damage

Reliability tests conducted by Kiwa PVEL have shown that damaged cells from impacts such as hail have a less catastrophic impact on the performance of photovoltaic modules than might be expected. No module tested by PVEL lost more than 3% of production after undergoing a hail stress sequence.

The test lab said that rather than relying on costly electroluminescence (EL) testing, it would recommend asset owners conduct annual airborne thermal scans to identify cracked modules where hot spots have formed, are at risk of fires and require replacement. The fire hazard is most serious in the rare event that a module with a failed bypass diode has cracked cells.

Hail protected modules only cause a power loss of 0.8%.

Waaree found that lab-tested solar modules that tilt into a stowed position to protect against direct hail impacts lose only 0.8% of their output due to being at a sub-optimal angle during hail events. In turn, the modules were able to completely avoid damage through storage. The losses are much better than the IEC standard of 5% loss due to storage.

Insurance costs for solar projects can be reduced by up to 50% by investing in durable construction and maintenance

Alliant Power data has shown that assets in high-risk areas can reduce insurance costs by up to 50% by investing in resilience measures, such as the selection of thermally tempered panels and hail storage trackers.

“It’s worth taking the time to differentiate your project and selecting highly qualified risk and insurance partners,” said Alliant Insurance Services.

Natural disasters are on the rise, with the number of billion-dollar weather events increasing from an average of 13 per year in 2010 to an average of 22 per year in the 2020s, with 28 billion-dollar weather events occurring in 2023 alone, the Alliance says .

Property damage is 87% less likely to occur when the hail load is tilted at 75 degrees

Photovoltaic system developer Longroad Energy shared a case study that assessed various tilt angles and their impact on protecting the module from hail impacts. The report is based on data from RETC and tracking solutions provider Nextracker.

It was found that with an inclination of 50 degrees, the risk of damage to the module is estimated at 33%, while with an inclination of 60 degrees – 8%, and an inclination of 75 degrees – the risk of damage caused by hail is only 1%.

The next report in this series will be an overview of kWh Analytics’ operational risk assessment of solar assets.

For more information on quality issues in utility-scale solar installations, register for the free webinar on Racks and Trackers: Factory Quality Issues and Design Considerations for Utility-Scale Solar Installations on June 11 at 11 a.m. ET . Registration here.