Energy Insider: China could double wind and solar capacity target by 2030. Solar panel makers warn of ‘temporary overcapacity’

This week’s Caixin Energy Roundup highlights significant developments in China’s energy sector, including policy updates, industry insights, major projects and technological advancements (pt. 1). The key topics covered are:

1. **Potential doubling of wind and solar capacity by 2030**: Energy expert Huang Zhen announced that China’s total wind and solar capacity is expected to reach at least 2,200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, potentially reaching 2,400 GW (pt. 3). This forecast almost doubles the government’s target of installing over 1,200 GW by 2030, showing a projected four-fold increase from 530 GW in 2020. (pt. 3). The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed this optimistic forecast, predicting that China will reach its 1,200 GW target by 2024, many years ahead of schedule (pt. 3).

2. **Temporary Solar Overcapacity**: At an industry conference, Chinese solar executives warned against “temporary overcapacity” (pt. 5). Li Gang, president of Seraphim Energy, noted that China’s photovoltaic module production capacity has reached about 861 GW, which, when fully utilized, is enough to replicate twenty years of operation in just nine months (pt. 5). Despite these warnings, officials such as Ding Xiufeng of Inner Mongolia argued that demand from developing countries justified further expansion (pt. 5).

3. **Reducing New Energy Targets**: China lowered renewable energy rates for provincial governments from 95% to 90% due to the grid’s difficulty in absorbing growing wind and solar power generation (pt. 7). Zheng Ying of Tsinghua University suggested that maintaining a higher target would require expensive energy storage facilities, weakening the competitiveness of renewable energy (pt. 7). Last December, the power of renewable energy sources in China exceeded the power of thermal energy for the first time (pt. 7).

4. **The Rise of Hydrogen Vehicles**: Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University predicted that by 2035, more than 1 million fuel cell vehicles could be on the road in China (pt. 9). Nearly 10,000 fuel cell vehicles are expected to be sold this year, rising to more than 50,000 by 2025 (pt. 9). Key advancements in vehicle performance include increased power output, efficiency, durability and nearly halving manufacturing costs (pt. 9). However, high production costs remain a limitation, as evidenced by their current market share of just 0.06% among new energy vehicles sold in 2023. (pt. 9).

5. **Biofuel flights**: China has made significant progress in green aviation with test flights of two planes powered partly by biofuel derived from ‘gutter oil’ (pt. 11). The biofuel produced by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) was blended with conventional jet fuel in a ratio of 40:60 (pt. 11). These efforts contribute to China’s strategy to decarbonize the aviation industry, which is responsible for about 1% of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions, highlighting a major breakthrough in the incorporation of domestically developed aircraft and biofuels (pt. 11).

Taken together, these Caixin highlights highlight China’s ambitious progress and ongoing challenges in achieving sustainable energy growth, making significant progress in renewable energy sources, hydrogen fuel technologies and green aviation. These developments indicate strong momentum towards meeting, if not exceeding, national and global renewable energy targets, while balancing the complexity of market demand and infrastructure opportunities.

Artificial intelligence generated, for informational purposes only