China will far exceed its 2030 wind and solar energy target

China is projected to far exceed its 2030 wind and solar capacity targets, which is positive for global climate change efforts but points to increasing pressure on the country’s power grid (pt. 1)(pt. 3). China aimed to install at least 1,200 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the decade; however, according to Heymi Bahar, senior analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), it is expected to exceed this target as early as next month (pt. 2). In April, the capacity of wind and solar power plants in China was already 1,130 GW, and six years ahead of schedule it is expected to reach 1,200 GW within a year (pt. 3). Bahar said this is not surprising because China has historically outperformed its renewable energy targets (pt. 4).

At a recent solar energy conference in Shanghai, Huang Zhen, an energy expert from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, predicted that China’s total wind and solar capacity will be at least 2,200 GW and most likely 2,400 GW by 2030, almost twice as much than the original goal (pt. 5)(pt. 6). This means that from 530 GW in 2020, China’s wind and solar capacity could quadruple in just ten years, Huang noted (pt. 7).

Globally, a milestone was reached at COP28, the United Nations climate change conference, with nearly 120 countries setting a common goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030. Although China did not support this commitment at the summit summit, supported it in an earlier joint statement with the US (pt. 11). The IEA estimates that by 2030, China’s renewable energy capacity will exceed 3,000 GW, accounting for 40% of the world’s total capacity (pt. 12). Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, noted that among the largest economies, China has the greatest potential to meet this commitment (pt. 13).

China’s renewable energy capacity, including wind, solar, hydro and thermal power, is expected to increase 2.5 times between 2022 and 2030 (pt. 14). In 2022 alone, China’s renewable energy capacity increased by almost 350 GW, accounting for almost two-thirds of the world’s total capacity (pt. 15).

Despite this progress, China faces challenges from the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar energy production in 2023 accounted for 37% of total global energy, enough to power Japan; Wind and solar power also contributed a record 16% of China’s total energy production, above the global average of 13%. (pt. 19). However, wind and solar energy emissions are likely to be reduced more quickly because the energy produced is not always needed immediately (pt. 20)(pt. 21). To address this issue, China lowered its key renewable energy target, allowing greater restrictions to help provincial governments develop renewable energy sectors while meeting targets (pt. 22).

The rapid construction of renewable energy projects exceeds the grid’s ability to integrate them, typically requiring three to five years to adapt the grid compared with six months to build renewable energy projects (pt. 23). China’s fossil-fuel power system poses additional challenges in integrating intermittent renewable energy (pt. 25)(pt. 26). Solutions could include expanding energy storage and improving inter-provincial electricity trading, although coal power has not been largely phased out, resulting in the simultaneous development of fossil and renewable energy, creating future challenges (pt. 28)(pt. 29)(pt. 33).

Finally, Bahar forecast consolidation among Chinese solar producers due to overcapacity and intense price competition in the market, which could lead to the postponement or cancellation of new projects (pt. 34).

Artificial intelligence generated, for informational purposes only