Why Vertex (VRTX) Could Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Have you been looking for stocks that could be well positioned to maintain their strong performance streak in the upcoming report? It is worth considering Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which belongs to the Zacks Medical – Biomedical and Genetics industry.

Looking at the last two reports, this drugmaker has had a strong streak of beating earnings estimates. Over the last two quarters, the company has exceeded estimates by an average of 7.59%.

For the most recent quarter, Vertex was expected to report earnings per share of $3.53, but instead reported earnings of $3.76 per share, representing a surprise of 6.52%. The consensus estimate for the prior quarter was $3.69 per share when it actually delivered $4.01 per share, representing a surprise of 8.67%.

Price and EPS surprise

For Vertex, estimates are trending upwards, thanks in part to its history of earnings surprises. And when you look at the positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Estimate), it is a great indicator of future earnings growth, especially when combined with the solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks in this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimates to the Zacks Consensus Estimates for the quarter; The Most Accurate Estimate is the Zacks Consensus version, which is defined in terms of change. The idea is that analysts reviewing their estimates just before an earnings release have the latest information that could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants had previously predicted.

Currently, Vertex has an ESP of +0.14%, which suggests that analysts have recently become optimistic about the company’s earnings prospects. This positive Earnings ESP combined with the stock’s Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) indicates that another rally is likely just around the corner. We expect the company’s next earnings report to be published on May 1, 2023.

When earnings ESP turns negative, investors should remember that this will reduce the predictive power of this metric. However, a negative value does not indicate a company’s lack of profits.

Many companies end up beating consensus EPS estimates, though that’s not the only reason their shares rise. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they fall short of consensus estimates.

For this reason, it is very important to check a company’s earnings ESP before its quarterly release to increase the chances of success. Use our Earnings ESP filter to find the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

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