P Chidambaram writes: Not Modi 3.0, but Modi 2.1

Voters also concluded that while the main opposition party, the Congress, had made a determined effort to take power, it may not have been ready yet. It had to re-establish roots in 9 states that have 170 Lok Sabha seats.

BJP

Narendra Modi was given a conditional mandate to form a government, but as is his wont, he allowed hubris to cloud his judgment. After the initial shock, Modi realized that there were no competitors in his party and no other party had enough numbers to stake a claim. He also came to the correct conclusion that both Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) and Nitish Kumar (JDU) were deal frontrunners and were more interested in protecting their hard-won turf in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar respectively, than playing ‘king’ in Delhi . As it turned out, Modi could easily please them with private assurances of funds, programs and some “special status” for their countries.

Modi made the mistake of repeating his core team, which I will discuss below.

Congress

Arithmetic stares you in the face. The Congress won 79 of 99 seats in just nine states. In nine other states, which have 170 seats, the Congress won only four (zero in five states and one each in four states). It will be useful to analyze what Congress did right in the first nine states and what it did wrong in the last nine states. The party has carried out preparatory work for the Udaipur and Raipur conclaves, but these preparations do not seem to have reached the desired level. The bright sparks are Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, which will hold state Assembly elections in a few months. Judging by the seats won in the 2024 LS elections, the Congress and its allies have an advantage in three states and even have a chance of winning power in the state elections. As the ramifications of the three state elections extend beyond these states, the BJP is sure to put up a tough fight. The INDIA bloc must fight to win.

Government

When Modi chose continuity over change, he shot himself in the foot. Several conclusions can be drawn from the composition of the third Modi government and the division of portfolios. First, Modi rejected the electorate’s warning to change the course and style of his government. Second, he stubbornly maintained that there was nothing wrong with his government’s core policies, especially economic, homeland security, and foreign policy. Third, he implicitly admitted that there was a serious talent deficit in his ranks. Fourth, he made it clear that there was room in his government only for those who accepted that his third government would be led by the PMO. Finally, he is convinced that Mr. Amit Shah and he have the resources to manage allies without giving them a respected role in the government.

None of the ministers have yet commented on their priorities or policies. Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman can continue to assure us that the Indian economy is growing at a rapid pace, that 240 million people have been lifted out of poverty, that inflation is low, jobs are being created and that India will become a $5 trillion economy by some unspecified date. Mr. Amit Shah can maintain that terrorism has been defeated, that Manipur is ruled constitutionally, that the CAA and UCC are on the right track and that the three bills to replace the IPC, CrPC and the Evidence Act are the best things that have happened to India since Thomas Babington Macaulay. Jaishankar can revel in photo opportunities in world capitals as China quietly strengthens its declared border with India and builds new economic and military ties with the Maldives, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. Rajnath Singh may believe that the job of a defense minister is to visit soldiers from time to time and leave minor matters to the NSA and CDS. Piyush Goyal can continue to sell the idea that Indian industry and foreign trade are booming, with the trade deficit likely to remain over $200 billion a year (of which China alone accounts for $85 billion). With the appointment of PK Mishra as Principal Secretary and Ajit Doval as SAC, the unanimity of the Modi government has been confirmed, signed and sealed.

This is definitely not Modi 3.0. It’s Modi 2.1.

People wanted a “change for the better” in their lives. People voted for jobs, price stability and peace and security. If the same ministers occupy the same offices and promote the same policies, it will be a cruel mockery of the nation’s verdict. In the first step – forming the government – Modi failed and failed the country. Citizens are looking forward to the second and third stages – the president’s speech and the budget.