Working on the payroll in the public and private sectors during the presidential term

By Calculated risk enabled 16/06/2024 08:21:00

Note: I’ve recently received many requests to republish this post, so here’s another update on employment tracking during the presidential term. We often use presidential terms as timestamps – we could use the Speaker of the House, the Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was lower in the 1980s, however the labor force participation rate was rising in the 1980s (younger population and women were joining the labor force) and today the labor force participation rate is generally falling. However, these charts provide an overview of changes in employment.

The first chart shows the change in private sector pay positions from the time each president took office until the end of his term. Presidents Carter, George H. W. Bush and Trump each served only one term.

GW Bush (red) took office when the stock market bubble burst and left when the housing bubble burst. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and Great Recession. There was also a significant recession in the early 1980s, right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession at the end of President GHW Bush’s (light purple) term, and Clinton (light blue) served eight years without a recession. In 2020, there was a recession related to the pandemic.

First, here is a table of private sector job offers. Both of the previous best terms in the private sector were held by President Clinton.

The first chart concerns private employment only.

Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), by 1,507,000 under President GHW Bush (light purple), 20,970,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 377,000 under President GW Bush, and gained 11,833,000 under President Obama (dark blue dashed). During Trump’s (Orange) term, the economy lost 2,135,000 private sector jobs.

During the first 40 months of President Biden’s term, the economy added 1,531,000 public sector jobs (approx. State and local governments account for 92% of public sector job growthand about 55% for education).

And a table with job offers in the public sector. Public sector jobs grew the most during Biden’s term, just before Reagan’s second term. Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama’s first term.