EU leaders meet in Brussels to share key positions. These are the leaders

The post-election horse-trading game faces its first test on Monday when European Union leaders meet in Brussels to discuss and possibly allocate key positions in the bloc.

During the informal summit, 27 heads of state and government will negotiate who should become the next President of the European Commission, President of the European Council and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Negotiations have traditionally involved a delicate juggling act: the allocation of key positions must take into account political affiliation, geographic origin and gender balance to ensure maximum buy-in at the table.

In 2019, the selection came after several days of wrangling, including an all-night marathon that left leaders visibly exhausted.

Brussels may have an easier time this time.

Following the elections, consensus was reached faster than many expected: Ursula von der Leyen on behalf of the Commission, António Costa on behalf of the Council and Kaja Kallas on behalf of the High Representative.

“This is the direction of travel,” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There is a clear interest in achieving transparency and predictability quickly.”

Another diplomat suggested that the rapid pace of the package was mainly due to the parties’ lack of credible alternatives.

Although hopes are high for a quick resolution, a final agreement may not be sealed at Monday’s dinner and will be postponed until the formal summit on June 27.

Here’s what it looks like.

European Commission: Ursula von der Leyen

From the moment he announced his candidacy for re-election in February, von der Leyen is considered the undisputed leader of the European Commission. Over the past five years, the 65-year-old German has guided the executive through successive crises while ensuring that legislative activity retains its original ambitions.

Her highly centralized way of working, her far-reaching Green Deal, her knee-jerk reaction to farmer protests and, most importantly, her initial reply to the Israel-Hamas war, where she was pictured shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were once considered an obstacle to her path to a second term.

However, the landslide victory of her center-right European People’s Party (EPP) in the June elections, winning 190 seats, allayed these fears. Von der Leyen has already started negotiations with the Socialists and Liberals to build a centrist coalition for the next five years, without formal involvement Giorgia Meloni’s far-right peers.

Von der Leyen, a sitting member of the European Council, will attend Monday’s summit, but withdraw when the conversation about the best job positions begins. If she gets the leaders’ blessing, she will later face a tussle in the European Parliament, where she will need the support of a majority of newly elected members – 361 votes – to secure her job.

Before the elections, Brussels it was boiling with speculation possible alternatives to von der Leyen. Other EPP leaders such as Andrej Plenković of Croatia, Klaus Iohannis of Romania and Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece were elevated along with Roberta Metsola, the current president of the European Parliament.

Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is another alternative that has made headlines. But the proposal, widely attributed to French officials as a ploy to extract concessions from von der Leyen, was always far-fetched: Draghi is not affiliated with any political party, and his nomination would completely disrupt horse trading.

European Council: Antonio Costa

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) took a distant second place in the European elections, winning 136 seats. But the result does not dampen their ambition.

The center-left family has focused on the presidency of the European Council – a position that has no legislative powers but takes on particular importance in times of crisis, when leaders gather in extraordinary meetings to make key decisions.

The current holder is Charles Michel, a Belgian liberal who cannot be re-elected after serving two consecutive 2.5-year terms. Michel’s leadership was divisive: his failed attempt run as a candidate in the European elections that took place earlier this year backfired and exposed the dangers of appointing a relatively young (and ambitious) person as President of the European Council.

The Socialists sensed an opening and put forward the name of a veteran: António Costa, a 62-year-old politician who served as Prime Minister of Portugal from 2015 to 2024. During his tenure, Costa was widely respected by his fellow leaders for his constructive approach and approachable nature.

However, his stay in power was cut short in November 2023, when he resigned after several members of his cabinet were accused of corruption and influence peddling in lithium mining concessions, green hydrogen and data center projects. Costa is alleged to have facilitated some of these irregular transactions.

Shortly after his resignation, prosecutors he admitted that in the transcription of the wiretaps, he confused the name of António Costa with the name of the Minister of Economy, António Costa Silva. This and other errors undermined the legal issue, giving diplomats in Brussels the impression that Costa’s name would finally be cleared.

Should EU leaders consider a socialist alternative it may be Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, but she has denied that she is interested in working at the highest level. Mario Draghi was also touted as a candidate for the Council, where his seriousness would be an advantage.

High Representative: Kaja Kallas

The liberal Renew Europe family, which fell from 102 to 80 seats in the European elections, is also keen to secure the top job despite disappointing results.

The socialists are laser-focused on the Council, leaving the liberals to the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The office’s importance has grown as the bloc grapples with global crises, but its effectiveness remains limited by the unanimity rule.

The current holder is Josep Borrell, a staunch socialist who has often frustrated diplomats goes beyond the script and expressing personal views that 27 does not share.

Geography will be a key factor in selecting his successor. As the Commission and the Council go to Western and Southern Europe respectively, there is a belief that the High Representative should go to the representative in the East.

The dual criteria of Eastern and Liberal Europe significantly narrows the list of candidates and puts Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas at the forefront. Over the past two years, Kallas has become a leading voice in the EU’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling on the bloc to adopt tougher sanctions against the Kremlin and chastising Western allies who fail to deliver promised ammunition to Kiev.

Its policies were once considered too tough and Baltic-centric, but the brutal reality of war tilted the discussion in her favor. Currently, she is a serious candidate for the position of the next head of EU foreign policy. If appointed, she will have to prove that she can also speak persuasively about other regions, such as Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.

“It is not a red line for anyone,” the diplomat said. “The position of the High Representative is largely determined by the mandate given by the Member States.”

Another liberal candidate is Alexander De Croo from Belgium he recently resigned for prime minister, but his Western European origins may play against him. Radosław Sikorski, former Member of the European Parliament, currently Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and a vocal supporter of Ukraine, fits the High Representative’s project. However, he is associated with the EPP, so his nomination would mean the leaders return to the drawing board.