Dreaming of Paris, the Struggle for Power: Electricity in Central Asia

The UN Climate Change Conference COP28, held in December 2023, highlighted the important role of developing countries – which include the Central Asian republics – in reducing dependence on fossil fuels through the use of cleaner, renewable energy sources. Indeed, Central Asia is considered to have something to offer the world in the fight against climate change, as it is home to many sources of clean energy, including solar, wind and hydropower.

“Ring of Electricity”

Last year, fossil fuels accounted for 95% of the total energy supply in five Central Asian countries, according to the UN. To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement and transition to a low-carbon and sustainable energy system, the region will need to make a giant leap from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The main issue is that this transition must be made through various electricity grids throughout Central Asia, most of which are connected to the Central Asian Power System (CAPS).

CAPS, also called the “power ring”, is a joint electricity transmission network connecting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and some southern parts of Kazakhstan. It was established in 1960 to ensure reliable electricity transmission and permanent cooperation between the republics. The energy systems of these regions are unified into a single structure, which allows parallel operation even in the event of failure of individual sections of the network, which means that if one part of the ring fails, the remaining parts continue to function, improving reliability and efficiency.

This system plays an important role in ensuring energy security and promoting cooperation and interaction. Creating and maintaining any power system requires coordinated work of all participants. In the past, some countries temporarily withdrew from CAPS for various reasons, but in most cases they sought to resume cooperation and links with the “electricity ring”.

Blackout

On January 25, 2022, consumers in the ring experienced a power outage.

Almost immediately, the lights went out in southern Kazakhstan (the city of Almaty and the Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Almaty and Zhambyl regions), in Kyrgyzstan (the cities of Bishkek and Osh and the Issyk-Kul region) and Uzbekistan (the city of Tashkent, the Fergana Valley and the regions of Syr Darya, Jizzakh, Samarkand, Navoi and Kashkadarya). A widespread power outage paralyzed transportation, shut down important social infrastructure and sparked public discontent in the three affected countries.

Kazakh expert Petr Svoik, a former professional power engineer who managed the thermal power plant (TPP), described the power outage as an unprecedented event, noting, however, that the technology worked perfectly and that the sudden loss of 1,500 MW of electricity did not lead to any serious consequences.

Kazakhstan’s energy system consists of two insufficiently connected parts – northern and southern. The north is actually a continuation of the Russian electricity system, part of the Russian “energy bridge” – although it is of course also important for the entire Kazakhstan – while the south is part of the Central Asian ring.

Looking at the layout of the substations in the core ring, you can see a loop network system. What happened in January 2022, apparently in Uzbekistan, was a sharp drop in generation that added approximately 1,500 MW to the load on the north-south link in Kazakhstan, more than the capacity of the north-south lines. “As a result, as electrical engineers say, there was a voltage spike on that line to compensate and the north was automatically disconnected from the south, or, well, the south from the north,” Svoik explained.

In other words, there is a system that was created at a time when the participating republics were not sovereign and no one expected the number of specialists to decline or that the participating republics would quickly reach the point where they could no longer keep the “electric ring” operational. For example, Kazakhstan had to negotiate with Russia to have Russian specialists come and build three TPPs. Indeed, every winter Kazakhstan prepares for spontaneous power and heat outages, even though Kazakhstan is richer in natural resources than its neighbors in Central Asia – but what good are these resources if they cannot be exploited? Looking at Asian tigers like Singapore and Korea, and of course China, Kazakhstan’s response to this situation has been to attract foreign investment along with companies and technology. An important positive effect of attracting foreign direct investment for the country’s economy may be the receipt and subsequent dissemination of more advanced production and management technologies.

Electricity production by country

In Uzbekistan, the electricity industry includes large TPPs such as Syr Darya (generating 3,215 MW), Tashkent (2,230 MW), Novo-Angren (2,100 MW), Navoi (2,068 MW) and Talimarjan (1,700 MW), as well as Urta-Hydro plants Chirchik cascades (HPP), such as Charvak (666 MW), Khodzhiken (165 MW) and Gazalkent (120 MW). Other renewable energy sources have a small share in Uzbekistan’s energy system. In 2023, solar power was 253 MW, and wind power was only 1 MW.

In addition, Rosatom is building a 330 MW nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan, scheduled for launch in 2029.

Meanwhile, in Kazakhstan, the government has not yet started a nationwide discussion on the construction of a nuclear power plant; the issue is expected to be put to a referendum.

Turkmenistan says it is developing its electricity industry at an “accelerated pace.” In 2006, the country produced 13.65 billion kWh of electricity (gross), exceeding the level from 1992 by 3.5%, and the year before by 6.5%. In the years 2006-2015, the average annual production growth was 5.8%; however, in the years 2015-2021 the volume did not change – 22.534 billion kWh – which, of course, does not prove the real development of the energy industry, but rather highlights once again the degree of closure of the country.

Meanwhile, Tajikistan wants to exploit its hydropower potential, estimated at a total of 527 billion kWh, of which 202 billion kWh is technically feasible and 172 billion kWh is economically feasible.

There are already many thermal power plants in the country: Nurek (capacity 3,000 MW), Sangtuda 1 (670 MW), Baipazinskaya (600 MW), the first unit in Rogun (600 MW), Sangtuda 2 (220 MW), Golovnaya (240 MW), Kairakkum (126 MW), Perepadnaya (29.9 MW) and Central (15.1 MW). In addition, on the Varzob River there are Varzob cascade power plants (Varzob 1, 2, 3) with a total capacity of 25.7 MW and several dozen small (with a capacity of up to 1.5 MW) and micro power plants (with a capacity of up to 1.5 MW) with a capacity up to 0.1 MW). There are also several TPPs in Tajikistan: Dushanbe 1 and 2 (capacity 198 MW and 400 MW, respectively) and Yavanskaya (120 MW).

Tajikistan exports electricity to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. Once the Rogun HPP plant is fully operational, it is expected that the country will also supply power to Pakistan.

Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector is in the worst condition. The country has difficulty meeting the needs of the domestic market, and energy production does not keep pace with the growth in consumption. In difficult times, he has to buy electricity from his neighbors. According to statistics, almost 15 billion kWh of electricity is generated annually in Kyrgyzstan. There are seven large HPPs in operation: Toktogul, Kurpsai, Shamaldysay, Tash-Kumyr, Uch-Kurgan, Kambarata 2 and At-Bashinskaya. The overall wear and tear of HPP machines is estimated at 80%. There are two TPPs, in Bishkek and Osh, where consumption is estimated at 60%.

Therefore, in order to support the entire electricity ring, investments in Kyrgyzstan’s energy system are urgently needed. The infrastructure needs significant modernization, but the country lacks the resources to do it on its own.

As for the implementation of the Paris Agreement by Central Asian countries, given the overall state of energy systems in the region, commitments to significantly reduce harmful emissions still seem a distant dream.