Flexibility choices could prove to be a fatal blind spot in Africa’s renewable energy transition

This consensus includes academia, businesses and policymakers who all recognize the potential of renewable energy to sustainably meet Africa’s growing needs.

They also readily acknowledge the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and the associated need for flexible capacity on power grids to ensure a secure and consistent supply. This is a good start. The real challenge, however, is determining which technologies are best suited to deliver this, and the actual extent of flexible performance needed in the system.

This is where the consensus ends.

A pragmatic approach to Africa’s flexibility needs

Smart flexibility strategies should meet three criteria. First, flexibility must be achieved at the lowest possible cost. Secondly, the flexible technologies selected for grid balancing must be proven and reliable. Finally, they should provide a solid foundation for the transition to 100% clean energy. In the case of flexible gas-to-energy technologies, this last criterion means the possibility of using renewable fuels in the future, if available, thus preventing long-term dependence on carbon emissions.

There is a wide range of “dispatchable” power technologies that can theoretically be used to balance grids with a high renewable energy content. They all perform differently when assessed against these three eligibility criteria.

This is where scientific research on Africa’s energy transition has a huge weakness.

A recent article (1) that analyzed all 54 African research studies on the transition to 100% renewable energy published since 2000 found that researchers only include zero-emission technologies such as concentrated solar power in their projects. or geothermal energy. flexibility analysis, regardless of their insufficient effectiveness, lack of reliability or excessive costs.

On the other hand, there was no mention of power plants with balancing engines, a technology used around the world, although in-depth analysis showed that in all three respects they are stronger candidates to help achieve Africa’s long-term green energy goals. They are reliable, extremely flexible and more cost-competitive than other dispatch technologies. They are also multi-fuel capable, meaning they can switch from natural gas as their primary fuel and switch to clean fuels such as green hydrogen as they become more available.

In this light, the big question is: can Africa really be deprived of technologies that can help make a realistic, cost-effective and completely safer transition to clean energy?

Thinking about the big picture

Let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Currently, almost half of Africa’s population still has no access to electricity, while the continent accounts for only 3.8% of global emissions. The carbon footprint of the average Nigerian is estimated at 0.44 tons, which is about 35 times less than that of the average American. At the same time, we also know that many countries on the continent have huge and largely untapped gas resources, which, if properly used, represent a huge development opportunity.

While climate action is obviously an important goal for many governments in Africa, the number one priority for the continent is tackling energy poverty. A secure and consistent supply of electricity is essential for socio-economic development, and electricity networks are primarily expected to provide sufficient amounts of electricity to citizens and businesses reliably and affordably.

Understanding the potential of balance motor technology

The smart path to 100% clean energy in Africa is a multi-decade and carefully crafted process to solve the grid flexibility equation. Identifying the optimal path is not an easy task. This requires sophisticated modeling techniques to determine the appropriate power mix that each country must establish to ensure that grids always remain stable as renewable energy levels increase. However, the models used in most academic resiliency research use a day-to-day approach that cannot properly capture the rapid and sudden fluctuations in wind and solar energy and their actual impact on day-to-day grid management.

That’s why Wärtsilä relies on PLEXOS, a highly advanced power system simulation software that supports countries around the world in shaping multi-year plans to build optimal power systems for the future.

Our modeling experts have conducted in-depth research in various African countries and revealed that the most cost-effective and reliable energy mix that most African countries can build is based on renewable energy as the new “baseload”, with balancing engine technologies and assets on the side demand, such as energy storage, providing the required flexibility.

Balancing engine power plants are a key transition technology that can facilitate more resilient and faster electrification and significantly impact the trajectory and overall effectiveness of any renewable energy expansion plans.

Aligning Africa’s development and climate goals means, in the long term, a shift to clean energy sources while leveraging the continent’s resources and competitive advantage. This strategy provides a balanced approach to development and sustainability. Ultimately, one thing is certain: without a sensible flexibility plan, renewable energy will not deliver on its promises.

(1) Highly renewable energy systems in Africa: rationale, research and recommendations. Authors: Ayobami S. Oyewo, Sebastian Sterl, Siavash Khalili, Christian Breyer. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435123002271