AAFC publishes June outlook report for major field crops – 620 CKRM

The price advantage of durum over spring wheat is decreasing. That’s one of the conclusions that can be drawn from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s June outlook report on major field crops.

Ag Canada has lowered its durum price forecast for the current crop year. The May forecast predicted an average durum price of $450 per tonne for the year. The forecast for June was lowered to $430 per tonne. A large drop in the average durum price to $350 per tonne is expected in the coming crop year, which begins on August 1. Meanwhile, Ag Canada’s spring wheat price forecast for the new crop year improved from $310 to $335 per tonne. The price difference between durum wheat and spring wheat is currently expected to average $95 per tonne in the current crop year and only $15 per tonne in the new crop year. This is historically a small premium for durum.

For barley, Ag Canada raised its price forecast for the current crop year by $15 per tonne, but the forecast for the new crop year is $20 per tonne lower than this year. This would be the lowest barley price in four years.

A large rebound in oat production is expected, up 33 percent year-on-year, due to an estimated increase in planted area and the assumption of normal yields. However, the average oat price is expected to be $40 per tonne lower in the new crop year.

Ag Canada increased its new canola price forecast by $25 per tonne from last month. Meanwhile, price forecasts for new lentil and pea crops increased by $30 per tonne. However, the price of lentils is still expected to fall dramatically year on year.