Climate policy and public perception in Canada

Pixabs

Tianna Tischbein

June 24, 2024

Public perception will be key to driving climate progress in Canada as confusion around climate change and climate policy grows. Despite frequent climate-related events such as floods and wildfires, many Canadians still view the climate crisis as a distant issue, prioritized at the expense of immediate problems.

While Canada wants to lead the fight against climate change, it is unable to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target by 2030. Reaching this goal requires ambitious plans and strong public support.

How willing are Canadians to change their behavior? The nation is divided. Some are eager to adopt sustainable practices, while others are concerned about the economic impact and rising costs of living. Still, many people see the adoption of clean energy as inevitable, but remain divided over the continued use of fossil fuels.

The main barrier preventing Canadians from fully supporting climate policy is widespread confusion on key issues such as carbon pricing and the energy transition, with a third of Canadians unsure how to answer related questions. To increase public perception and support for climate policies, clear communication is essential. The public does not trust politicians, but credible sources, including scientists and medical experts, can provide reliable information.

Delaying climate action will only increase costs over time. While Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre suggests pausing the carbon tax for short-term relief as part of summer plans, this ignores the long-term needs of Canadians. Climate action must be taken alongside other urgent policy actions on issues such as inflation and the housing crisis, not as a stand-alone effort.

Canadian public perceptions

Canadians are increasingly concerned about climate change, with 80% expressing some concern and 70% demanding more government action. However, media reports on the federal government’s carbon pricing policies, particularly the carbon tax, present a conflicting narrative.

This policy, intended to encourage pollution reduction, has faced criticism, especially from conservatives. The recent revelation of errors in the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) analysis of carbon pricing – the same analysis whose mathematical calculations provided the basis for Poilievre’s attack – has triangulated the debate, causing confusion among the public.

With 44% of Canadians already having a negative view of the carbon tax, coupled with a lack of awareness of its purpose, its effectiveness is being called into question, negating its intended incentive. How the government deals with this mistake can significantly impact public perception. Transparency and clear communication will be key to building trust and public support to deliver on climate commitments.

While the economic impact of a carbon tax may be questionable, an analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute confirms its goal and states that it will contribute to an 8-9% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The ongoing carbon tax debate overshadows the broader discussion on climate change. The fundamental policy and political question is whether we want to have a price on carbon emissions. Do we want policies that encourage new behaviors through relative price changes and provide rebates to offset the impact on household balance sheets?

The political challenge is more important than PBO cost projections. Forecasts provide insight into discount size considerations. Discounts are adjustable.

The current government would benefit from clear and accurate communication on the state of the climate crisis and climate policies to increase confidence and support in implementing its climate commitments.

International views

Despite Canada’s commitments to international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, it has lacked progress of its own. Canada, which consistently ranks at the bottom in international climate performance assessments such as the Climate Action Tracker and the Climate Change Performance Index, Canada’s performance is considered highly inadequate.

The nation’s reputation as a serious actor in the fight against climate change rests on its ability to deliver on these commitments. Continued poor performance could tarnish this reputation and affect diplomatic relations and international negotiations.

International agreements act as both motivators and stressors, influencing domestic politics and public support. If Canada is serious about meeting its commitments, it will need to win the support of the public. Public awareness of Canada’s international commitments and reputation as a climate leader may influence national attitudes and support for climate policies.

Next election

Climate change will become a key issue in the upcoming elections, and public perception will undoubtedly play a key role. This is an important issue to many Canadians, with 70% supporting the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

According to Research Co. there are noticeable differences depending on political affiliation. According to Research Co. 71% of liberal voters see climate change as a major threat compared to just 42% of conservative voters. Additionally, public policy decisions can have significant political implications – as evidenced by the fact that 1 in 4 Canadians attribute their withdrawal of support from the Liberals to the carbon tax.

While the Liberal Party has demonstrated a commitment to fighting climate change, it must improve public perception by sharing clear and accurate information about the climate crisis, related policies, and the short- and long-term impacts on Canadians, especially the carbon tax.

On the other hand, if the Conservative Party’s stance against a greenhouse gas tax is any indication, it probably won’t prioritize climate change on its agenda. Despite gains in the polls, they should not underestimate the importance of climate action to Canadians.

Voters will look for platforms that prioritize climate action and align with Canada’s commitments, shaping election outcomes. Despite the media narrative, Canadians must remain consistent in their concerns. Political parties must recognize the significant role of climate change in shaping the next elections.

Tianna Tischbein is an analyst at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa.