Understanding changes in environmental policy in Latin America

Focusing on government entities and institutions, the research project GREENLEAP (Greening Achilles’ Heel Sectors: Understanding Environmental Policy Change in Primary Industries in Latin America), led by Solveig Aamodt of CICERO, will examine the development of environmental policies in Achilles’ heel sectors in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. All four countries have shown relatively ambitious approaches to supporting global environmental governance processes and to adopting national climate policies and targets.

“However, all four countries also derive a significant share of their GDP from export-oriented primary industry sectors with high environmental conflicts over pollution, emissions, and land and freshwater use. Especially if we focus on industrial agriculture in Brazil, copper and lithium mining in Chile, and oil extraction in Colombia and Mexico,” says Aamodt.

“It can be said that these sectors constitute the Achilles heel of individual countries in terms of ambitious environmental protection activities. “These sectors are characterized by being established economic sectors with strong links between businesses and government institutions, where adopting environmental priorities over traditional sector goals is usually particularly difficult,” he explains.

The role of Latin America in the global mineral industry

Latin America plays a significant role in the global minerals industry. For example, Chile has 21% of the world’s copper reserves and Brazil has 16% of the world’s nickel reserves.

“Environmental policy is necessary here to make real progress on the environmental agenda, but environmental policy in these sectors can also harm the economy in the short term,” says Benedicte Bull, professor at the University of Oslo and research partner of the project.

“Compared to the Norwegian situation, where we are dependent on the oil and gas industry and policies are geared towards constant dependence, I think it is worth asking ourselves what lessons we can draw from Latin America to overcome vested interests? And how come some areas managed to do this?” – asks Taurus.

Opinion polls in Latin America show that people are concerned about climate issues, but they are much more concerned about violence and crime.

“The problem is that the diversification of organized crime that we have seen in the last decade means increasing pressure on natural resources. For example, criminal organizations engage in illegal logging, illegal mining or deforestation in order to open up routes for drug trafficking, for example by establishing secret air strips,” explains Bull.

Although people are aware and concerned about climate, this does not necessarily mean that they vote for environmental profiles.

“As in Europe, the populist right is growing in many Latin American countries,” says Bull. “We will see that even if most people take climate issues seriously, they support populist right-wing candidates for other reasons: for example, to defend “family values” or fight crime. However, because these same politicians refuse to recognize climate change as a serious problem, this trend reduces the politics of “climate deniers”.

Over the past decade, the continent has experienced several political changes that have had a significant impact on environmental policy. Presidential elections were held in Mexico at the beginning of June.

“Newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico raises hopes that climate change and energy transition will be on the Mexican political agenda. Sheinbaum is a former IPCC climate scientist, and while she will face intense pressure to protect the oil sector, including from her ally, incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, she could steer Mexico in a new direction, Taurus says.

The interaction of elites and institutions

GREENLEAP looks at the interconnections between different elites and institutions and how this interplay can explain where progress has and has not occurred.

“Elites” are defined as a group of individuals who possess significant resources (economic, political, social, symbolic) that allow them to dominate decision-making processes in society. There may be different groups of elites in society.

Matias Franchini from the Universidad del Rosario in Bogota has conducted research on the political economy of the environment in Latin America and emphasizes that the current situation in the region is complicated by the position of governance. Many countries on the continent experience fragmentation of policy preferences and several governance challenges.

“The last decade was characterized by lower average GDP growth than the lost decade of the 1980s. Many countries in the region are struggling to rebuild their economies after the end of the commodity boom and the pandemic. In addition, the climate crisis is manifesting itself, for example, in floods in Porto Alegre, Brazil, and forest fires in Bogotá, Colombia, which is a rainy area,” says Franchini. Moreover, he points out that some countries are very susceptible to climate extremes.

Franchini continues: “Over the last two decades, some countries in the region have taken environmental leadership at different points, such as Brazil and Mexico in the 2000s under Lula and Calderon, respectively. Currently, both Colombia under Petro and Brazil under Lula consider themselves environmental leaders, although there are some differences: while both agree on protecting the Amazon Rainforest, Petro has also committed to reducing Colombia’s dependence on fossil fuels, while Lula encourages production, even in the Amazon.”

“Mexico may also enter the leadership contest, depending on how deep President-elect Sheinbaum’s environmental background may impact her presidential term. In any case, our research will also help analyze the density of environmental leadership claims,” says Franchini.

“It is worth noting that the development of environmental policies – and leadership claims – in the region occurred under both right-wing and left-wing governments, at least until the arrival of the new far right in Latin America, with administrations such as Bolsonaro in Brazil and Milei in Argentina openly opposing environment.” Franchini emphasizes that this trend of ideologizing environmental protection may become an obstacle to sustainable development in Latin America.