Without a majority, Modi’s policies are at risk in the new parliament

Authors: Swati Gupta and Ruchi Bhatia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s broad domestic program is in jeopardy after his party failed to win a clear majority in parliament for the first time in a decade, forcing it to work with a coalition of parties and grapple with an enlarged opposition.

Over the past decade, as Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has ruled with an absolute majority, it has advocated for – and pushed through – laws that critics say have helped achieve its divisive Hindu-majority goals. Perhaps after an electoral defeat, some of the outstanding policies on this agenda may need to be reviewed or discarded.

Signs of acrimony between the BJP-led government and the opposition were visible on Monday at the start of the first parliamentary session since election results were announced earlier this month. The united opposition, which won about 230 of the 543 seats in the lower house, the Lok Sabha, is opposing the BJP’s election of an interim speaker of parliament and protesting the growing scandal over the college entrance exams.

Addressing the inaugural session, Modi called for consensus among lawmakers to achieve the ambitious goals of making India a developed country by 2047.

“Together, we will fulfill this responsibility and further strengthen people’s trust,” Modi said. “We want to move forward and speed up decisions by bringing everyone together, preserving the sanctity of the constitution.”

The opposition alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, accused Modi and the BJP of undermining the constitution. Opposition lawmakers led by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress Party held copies of the constitution while taking oath on Monday.

“Our message is getting out: no force can violate the constitution of India,” Gandhi told reporters.

Here’s a look at some of the BJP’s internal policies that may now be questionable or require rework under a coalition government.

Uniform Civil Code

For years, the BJP has advocated replacing India’s religion-based law with a uniform civil code. This would mean a non-religious set of rules governing matters such as marriage, inheritance and divorce. Modi and his party have long advocated for a uniform code. They see the current system as allowing non-Hindu communities – especially Muslims – to operate on their own terms, and the new code would likely ban many personal practices related to marriage and divorce.

In a test case, the BJP-run state of Uttarakhand in northern India passed the code in its state assembly earlier this year. Successive governments have refrained from amending these laws for fear of angering voters of all religions. It is likely that Modi’s key regional allies – all of whom have significant Muslim populations in their states – will avoid siding with the BJP if they try to implement this measure in the current parliament.

National Register of Citizens

A month before India’s April elections begin, the government introduced a religiously motivated bill – the Citizenship (Amendment) Act – that accelerates the realization of civil rights for immigrants from neighboring countries, except for those who identify as Muslims.

The bill was seen as a precursor to a proposed national citizenship register that would require Indians to prove their citizenship. Amit Shah, who retained his post as home minister in the new Modi government, had earlier promised to conduct a nationwide exercise to root out illegal immigrants from neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, many of whom are Muslims.

In a country with low literacy rates and high poverty, many Indians often struggle to obtain documentation, making it more difficult to prove citizenship. Critics feared that if the BJP won a clear majority – as many predicted before the election – the government would likely focus on a national population register. However, a coalition government in cooperation with other countries’ leaders is likely to force Modi to negotiate with partners on any agreement.

Military recruitment scheme

In 2022, the Modi government changed the Indian Army’s recruitment policy to short-term work without pension benefits. The announcement of the program sparked protests across the country as it further limited employment opportunities in a country already struggling with a severe employment crisis. Under the plan, recruits would train for six months and serve in the army for three and a half years, but would not be entitled to pensions or other benefits after leaving.

Leaders of two of the BJP’s partners in the eastern state of Bihar – which is also one of India’s poorest – have publicly asked for a review of the policy. During the election campaign, one of the main promises of the opposition was the liquidation of the plan.

One nation, one election

The Modi government wants to reorganize the country’s electoral system: it wants to hold simultaneous national and state elections. The government believes that parallel elections would reduce costs and improve efficiency. The government-established commission on this issue presented its report in March and recommended that the government adopt the “One Nation, One Elections” strategy.

Currently, state polls cover the country’s entire five-year electoral cycle. For example, polls in key states of Maharashtra and Haryana will be held later this year, just a few months after the country votes in national elections.

To implement this plan, the government would have to change the constitution, which would be much more difficult if it governed in a coalition and against a strongly opposed opposition proposal. Modi’s opponents have long feared that the BJP would use its popularity at home to crush state elections also taking place at the same time. Currently, off-cycle elections spread over five years mean that local issues – and parties – often dominate voter preferences.

Census and delimitation

The last census in India was conducted in 2011. The next one, scheduled for 2021, was suspended due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Last year, parliament passed a law requiring a census and then demarcation after 2026.

The last delimitation operation, i.e. redistricting, was carried out in 2002, and subsequent governments kicked the can so as not to disturb the current balance of seats in parliament.

The southern states, which have always lagged behind in terms of seat sharing – due to their smaller population – expect delimitation to further reduce their representation in the lower house of India’s parliament, the Lok Sabha. The country’s densely populated northern states – many of them BJP strongholds – will almost certainly see an increase in the number of MPs.

The new census and redrawing of political constituencies will also pave the way for Modi to implement the Women’s Reservation Act, under which one-third of lawmakers’ seats will be reserved for women.

Affirmative action

Under India’s constitution, affirmative action is intended for socially and economically backward communities, including lower-caste Hindus. Under this policy, a certain number of government jobs and places in government-run educational institutions are reserved for people at the lowest rungs of the caste system.

In the last election, Modi’s BJP lost support among lower-caste Hindus, with many of them voting for caste-based parties, especially in some key northern states.

In television interviews and at campaign rallies, Modi blamed the opposition for using divisions in the caste system to influence voters and repeatedly assured the country that the BJP would not abandon its affirmative action policies. He also stressed that the BJP would never take affirmative action on the basis of religion, especially against Muslims.

Modi’s ally, the Telugu Desam Party, is indeed targeting some sort of affirmative action program based on the religion it governs in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, making this an issue where the BJP is likely to be at odds with a much-needed ally .