Masters of modeling

A Memorial research team was established mathematical models that will inspire future public health responses to infectious diseases.

Dr. Amy Hurford, an expert in infectious disease modeling in the Faculty of Science’s Department of Biology, collaborates with Julien Arino and PhD student in the Department of Mathematics, Dr. Maria Martignoni.

More than four years have passed since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, and public health responses and policies continue to vary around the world.

The effects of this policy are far-reaching and continue to be felt in every corner of the province, the country and the world.

These policies can be boiled down to two unique strategies: eliminating or mitigating infection.

The research team led by Dr. Martignoni identified the need to develop guidelines to assess the appropriateness of elimination or mitigation strategies early in the pandemic and has been helping government officials and working groups in Canada guide policy implementation since 2020.

Their research has now culminated in quantitative analysis and modelling that will change the way future public health policies are implemented.

Mathematical modeling

They argue that eradication strategies that target zero community transmission have proven effective in regions with low travel volumes and stringent border control measures.

On the other hand, mitigation strategies that focus on reducing transmission to manageable levels are more suited to well-connected and densely populated areas.

“Different public health responses are appropriate in different local contexts.” —Dr. Amy Hurford

Recognizing the importance of building links between the two models for mitigating or eliminating disease, Drs. Hurford and Martignoni developed a theoretical framework based on research conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic on implemented health policies around the world.

Their manuscript was published on June 19 in a prestigious journal Royal Society Open Science describes modeling in detail, including common mistakes and misconceptions that make it difficult to recommend one strategy over another.

Study: Is eradication or mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 best? Regional and disease characteristics Determine Recommended Strategy offers a detailed analysis of elimination and mitigation approaches tailored to the regional characteristics and specificities of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants.

Publication in Royal Society Open Science not only highlights the innovative work being done at Memorial University, but also reinforces the critical role of evidence-based quantitative research in guiding public health policy, researchers say.

Key conclusions

The findings show that the effectiveness of COVID-19 strategies depends largely on local factors.

The severity of infection, health care capacity, case detection efficiency, population vaccination status, and the economic and social costs of public health measures all play a pivotal role in determining which strategy should be implemented and when.

The paper presents a comprehensive framework to help policymakers decide whether to eliminate or reduce emissions impacts, taking into account the economic and social costs associated with each approach.

“Elimination may be an important public health strategy in some regions, and mitigation may be equally important in others. Our work supports all regions by highlighting that different public health responses are appropriate in different local contexts,” Dr. Hurford explained.

Local application

For Dr. Hurford and Dr. Martignoni of Canada provided an excellent field of study for their research.

“In Canada, many public health decisions are made at the provincial level,” Dr. Martignoni said. “The Covid-19 pandemic in Canada was quite unique in that modeling was needed to support both elimination and mitigation approaches.”

The researchers applied their framework to Canadian provinces and territories, highlighting the varying responses across the country.

For example, the Atlantic Provinces and Northern Canada successfully implemented eradication strategies early in the pandemic, taking advantage of geographic isolation and lower population densities.

In turn, provinces such as Ontario and Quebec have adopted mitigation strategies due to their large urban centers and good connectivity, which makes eradication impractical.

The study highlights the importance of flexible and adaptive public health policies that take into account regional characteristics.

The authors also emphasize the need to continually re-evaluate strategies as the virus evolves and new variants emerge.

Inspiration for future policy

This publication makes a significant contribution to the field of public health, providing valuable insights that can help shape future responses to pandemics or infectious diseases in general.

The framework developed by Drs Martignoni and Hurford offers a valuable tool for decision-makers around the world to make informed decisions that balance public health needs with economic and social considerations.

“This work inspired future modeling,” Dr. Hurford said. “It helped establish a new working group and inspired applications to other diseases and settings.”

Dr. Martignoni agrees. “We want other people to read our work and think, ‘This is something I want to contribute to!’ We want them to be inspired so that we can come together to create a body of work that will help us better define the circumstances under which eliminating or mitigating the disease is best to optimize future responses to the pandemic.”