The NFL loses Sunday’s ticket lawsuit and is expected to pay more than $4 billion

A federal jury in Los Angeles on Thursday found the NFL liable in the Sunday Ticket class action lawsuit and awarded the plaintiffs more than $4 billion in damages. The NFL Association may challenge U.S. District Judge Philip Gutierrez, finding that the damages awarded are excessive and unreasonable; the league may also appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit and later to the U.S. Supreme Court. The ruling could force major changes to the league’s broadcasting arrangements, which last year accounted for 93 of the 100 most-watched TV broadcasts in the U.S.

While this case is a setback for the NFL, it’s likely the league won’t have to make any payments or change its broadcasting structure for years — if ever.

Gutierrez, who repeatedly expressed skepticism about the plaintiffs’ case during the trial, will hear post-trial motions on July 31. The NFL will likely learn a verdict regardless of the verdict, in which the judge will be asked to rule that no reasonable jury could have reached a verdict given the evidence presented at trial or that the jury simply misapplied the law. The NFL could also seek a “remittitur” in the event the league argues that the damages are so excessive that keeping the dollar amount would constitute a miscarriage of justice. Moreover, the league could require Gutierrez to outline potential far-reaching changes to Sunday’s ticket structure that could result from the jury’s verdict.

If Gutierrez does not reverse the jury’s decision, the NFL will appeal the decision to the Ninth Circuit. On appeal, the league will seek to put the case on hold until the appeal is filed. This is a major consideration for class member fans who are expecting a check in the mail or fans who are wondering whether to renew their subscriptions. The league argues that a stay of play is appropriate given the massive damages awarded and the structural changes that would affect contracts for teams, the league and suppliers. A stay would mean the NFL would not pay any damages or the need to make any structural changes to the Sunday Ticket package would be put on hold until all appeals are resolved.

The Ninth Circuit’s appeals process is not quick. From start to finish, Ninth Circuit appeals often take about a year and a half to almost three years. The NFL could also petition the U.S. Supreme Court after the Ninth Circuit’s appeal is complete, which could extend the timeline into the late 2020s. Another possibility is that the NFL and the plaintiffs could reach a settlement before the appeal is heard, in which the league would pay less and be required to make fewer changes, but the plaintiffs — and their lawyers, who will receive a significant portion of the proceeds — would be assured of payment.

The class action lawsuit was brought on behalf of more than 2.4 million individual subscribers and more than 48,000 restaurants, bars and other commercial properties that purchased Sunday Ticket. According to journalist and trial observer Meghann Cuniff, the residential class received $4.7 billion, while the commercial class received another $96 million. The plaintiffs allege that NFL teams linking their broadcasts through Sunday Ticket, which is available through YouTube TV for $349 a year (or less with discounts), violated antitrust law.

The NFL disputed the findings. “We are disappointed with today’s jury verdict in the NFL Sunday Ticket class action lawsuit,” the league said in a statement. “We will certainly challenge this decision as we believe that the class claims in this case are baseless and without merit. We thank the jury for their time and services and for Judge Gutierrez’s guidance and supervision throughout the trial.”

Unlike teams in other major professional leagues, NFL teams give local fans the opportunity to watch games on TV for free. However, out-of-town fans must purchase a Sunday Ticket. If NFL teams compete with each other on broadcast deals, some teams could strike deals to broadcast games in out-of-town markets and possibly make those games available to watch for free, or at least at a lower price than Sunday Ticket.

The NFL raised several counterarguments, but none convinced the jury. One argument centered on the Sports Broadcasting Act (SBA), which exempts professional football, basketball, baseball, and hockey leagues from antitrust scrutiny when they negotiate national television agreements for games broadcast free over the air. The SBA does not exempt the subscription-based Sunday Ticket from antitrust scrutiny, but the league maintains that the Sunday Ticket is part of a broader television agreement that includes games broadcast locally free over the air.

The NFL also warned that if teams were forced to compete for out-of-town broadcast licenses, it would reduce the number of televised games available to fans. While Sunday Ticket is a paid option, it gives fans the ability to watch any game on TV regardless of their location in the U.S. If out-of-town fans were left to their own devices to determine whether their favorite team found a broadcast partner, some could lose access to some games.

In addition to attractiveness, the NFL will have to consider new broadcast arrangements in which teams will compete to sell broadcasts. The league maintains that consumers will be worse off without Sunday Ticket, but it has economic incentives to ensure the NFL continues its broadcasting dominance – even if it means finding new ways for out-of-town teams to broadcast games.

(This story has been updated in its entirety with details about the rulings and appeals process.)