Jerry Jones could have played 4D Chess by delaying Dak Prescott’s contract extension

July 4th, the birth day of this supposedly great nation, is approaching, and Team America still hasn’t signed Dak Prescott to a contract extension. After finishing second in MVP voting last season, Prescott seemed destined for a lucrative, at-the-market deal with the Dallas Cowboys.

Instead of following the common trends of today’s league, Jerry Jones decided to change direction. What exactly did Jones change his major to? It’s not clear. The Cowboys are playing hardball with their most important player, essentially hedging their bets and hoping Prescott’s asking price comes down.

However, it would take an act of God for the asking price to drop. As Trevor Lawrence’s eye-popping new $275 million contract proves, every remotely good quarterback gets paid. That means it would take something completely absurd to hit the salary cap and restore Dallas’ leverage.

Well… don’t look now, but Jerry Jones might be lucky. Sort.

The NFL recently faced a significant lawsuit over its Sunday Ticket TV package, which potentially violates antitrust laws. Here’s a recap from Justis Mosqueda: Acme Packing Co.

“An NFL team on Thursday was ordered to pay more than $4 billion in damages to commercial and residential parties for what it said were antitrust violations related to the league’s NFL Sunday Ticket package. Because it was a federal antitrust lawsuit, the damages could be tripled, meaning the final amount could exceed $12 billion.”

If the league is sentenced to pay $12 billion in damages, the salary cap will implode. The league’s total payroll in 2023 was $19 billion. The NFL plans to appeal the jury’s decision, but if a higher court upholds the penalty, the league could face a difficult few years.

Contracts won’t be reduced to a percentage of the salary cap if the league’s treasury is eliminated. Mosqueda uses Jordan Love’s inevitable extension with Green Bay as an example. If he signs a $60 million-a-year contract and the salary cap is cut in half, the Packers are effectively in a bind. Love still makes $60 million a year, and their flexibility is zero.

The Cowboys could find themselves in a similar situation unless Jones waits out the storm and doesn’t give in to Prescott’s demands. Two possible fallout effects are described by Acme Packing Co. in the event of serious legal action, either the league will abolish the salary cap altogether, as Jerry Jones once did, or the salary cap will be drastically lowered and “cap pressure” will occur.

Ironically, Jones’ long-held desire to lift the salary cap would likely hurt his case for Prescott. That would only raise the market value of elite players, and Prescott could demand — and get — the biggest QB contract in NFL history. If not from Dallas, then from someone else. But if the cap is lowered, Prescott would no longer be able to ask for a historic figure in his next deal. The Cowboys might not save any cap space, but they would save in dollar value.

Ultimately, Jones and the Cowboys likely want the league to avoid a devastating court-imposed financial crisis. But hey, we know Jerry Jones likes to maximize his investments. If there’s a way to pay Prescott below market value, he’ll take it.