French elections 2024: The French are clearly ahead in the first round. What happens next?

PARIS (AP) – French voters will face a crucial choice on July 7 in a second round early parliamentary elections which could lead to the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation during World War II — or to no majority at all.

Official results show Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration nationalist National Rally party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to a complex voting system and political tactics.

What happened?

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally and its allies took the lead, winning about a third of the votes. New Popular Front coalition which includes center-left, green and extreme left forces, came in second place, overtaking the president Emmanuel Macron centrist alliance.

Dozens of candidates who won at least 50% of the vote Sunday were elected directly. All remaining races go to a June 7 runoff between the top two or three candidates.

Poll forecasts indicate that the National Union will win the most seats in the next National Assembly, but it is unclear whether it will obtain an absolute majority of 289 out of 577 seats.

The French voting system is not proportional to nationwide party support. Lawmakers are elected by district.

What’s next?

The rivals of the National Union are trying to prevent it from gaining an absolute majority.

The left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates from districts where they came third in order to support other candidates opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would drop out before the run-off to try to block the National Assembly.

This tactic has worked well in the past, when Le Pen’s party and its predecessor Front National were considered by many to be political pariahs. But now Le Pen’s party has broad and deep support across the country.

Why is the far right growing?

Even though France has one of the world’s largest economies and is an important diplomatic and military power, many French voters struggle with inflation, low incomes and the feeling that they are being left out by globalization.

Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has exploited this voter frustration and built a nationwide support network, especially in small towns and farming communities that see Macron and the Parisian political class as out of touch with reality.

What is cohabitation?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement a policy that would differ from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced cohabitation three times, the last under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, leads the government and presents draft laws.

The president is weakened domestically during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.

Why does this matter?

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of the two houses of the French parliament. He has the final say in the lawmaking process in the conservative-dominated Senate.

Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027 and said that he didn’t give up before the end his term of office. But a weakened French president could complicate many issues on the world stage.

During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policy were considered an informal “reserved area” of the president, who usually managed to reach a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

However, today the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would probably be subject of tension during potential cohabitation.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats in parliament, said he intended to “be a cohabiting prime minister, respectful of the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising on the policies we will implement”.

Bardella said that as prime minister he will oppose sending French troops to Ukraine – a possibility that Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse deliveries of French long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets in Russia itself.

What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly, even if he or she does not have an absolute majority – as was the case with Macron’s centrist alliance from 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already said it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a no-confidence vote if other political parties merge.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that seems unlikely given the political divergences.

Another option would be to establish a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still have to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would probably focus mainly on current affairs, not implementing major reforms.

If political talks last too long over the summer holidays and from July 26 to August 11, Olympics in ParisMacron’s centrist government could maintain a transitional government until further decisions are made.