French far-right wins first round of elections

PARIS — French voters will face a decisive choice on July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since Hitler’s occupation in World War II or no majority at all.

Official results suggest Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, nationalist National Rally party has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to a complicated voting system and political tactics.

What happened?

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally and its allies came out on top, winning about a third of the votes. In second place was the New Popular Front coalition, which includes center-left, green and radical left forces, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Dozens of candidates who won at least 50% of the vote Sunday were elected directly. All remaining races go to a June 7 runoff between the top two or three candidates.

Poll projections indicate that the National Assembly will win the most seats in the next National Assembly, but it is unclear whether it will achieve an absolute majority of 289 of 577 seats.

The French voting system is not proportional to nationwide party support. Lawmakers are elected by district.

What’s next?

National Rally’s rivals are trying to prevent it from obtaining an absolute majority.

The left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts where they finished third in order to support other candidates opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the second round in an attempt to block the National Assembly.

This tactic has worked well in the past, when Le Pen’s party and its predecessor Front National were considered by many to be political pariahs. But now Le Pen’s party has broad and deep support across the country.

Why is the far right gaining strength?

Even though France has one of the world’s largest economies and is an important diplomatic and military power, many French voters struggle with inflation, low incomes and the feeling that they are being left out by globalization.

Le Pen’s party, which blames immigration for many of France’s problems, has tapped into this voter frustration and built a nationwide network of support, especially in small towns and farming communities that see Macron and the Parisian political class as out of touch.

What is cohabitation?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation – called “cohabitation” in France – the government would implement a policy that differs from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last under conservative president Jacques Chirac with socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin from 1997–2002.

The Prime Minister is accountable to Parliament, leads the government and introduces laws.

The president is weakened internally during cohabitation, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense because he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.

Why does this matter?

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in lawmaking over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.

Macron has a presidential mandate until 2027 and has announced that he will not step down before the end of his term. However, a weakened French president could complicate many matters on the international stage.

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy had been considered an informal “reserved area” for the president, who usually managed to reach a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

However, the current views of the far-right and left-wing coalition on these issues differ radically from Macron’s approach and are likely to become a subject of tension during a potential coalition.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats in parliament, said he intended to “be a cohabiting prime minister, respectful of the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic, but uncompromising on the policies we will implement”.

Bardella said that as prime minister he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility that Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would deny French supplies of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets within Russia itself.

What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly, even if he or she does not have an absolute majority – as was the case with Macron’s centrist alliance from 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already announced it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a vote of no confidence if other political parties unite.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that seems unlikely given the political differences.

Another option would be to establish a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would probably be concerned mainly with everyday matters rather than implementing major reforms.

If political talks drag on too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics (July 26-August 11), Macron’s centrist government could maintain a transitional government until further decisions are made.