Analytical Perspective – NoVa Caps

General manager Brian MacLellan and the Capitals embarked on an aggressive restructuring campaign earlier this summer, making a number of acquisitions that are expected to provide immediate benefits in improving a roster that made the playoffs last season.

To summarize, here are some of the moves we’ve seen so far:

All of these moves address major issues the team struggled with last season: six top centers, solid blue-line play, one of the top six wingers and better goaltending than Darcy Kuemper.

The impact of these moves is significant. Let’s break down the impact using Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement (GAR) projections to see the net impact on GAR for the upcoming season. If you’d like to learn more about GAR and other statistical terms, check out our NHL Analytics Glossary.

Please note that this data only applies to forwards and defensemen, as Evolving Hockey does not provide GAR predictions for goaltenders.

Players leaving

The four skaters who were either moved or not retained before free agency who were on the playoff roster last season are Nick Jensen, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn and Max Pacioretty. Here are their GAR projections for next season:

Overall, we expect a total of 4.7 GAR to be moved from the roster that was there after the playoffs. Jensen was by far the most valuable asset that was moved in terms of GAR, but we’ll see how MacLellan turns that into a much more valuable player.

Upcoming Players

Here’s the real impact of MacLellan’s bold (and smart) moves:

The combined additional projected GAR for these six players will be 23.9 for the 2024-25 season. This is a significant increase considering it is a 19.2 increase in projected GAR. Furthermore, the average projected GAR for acquired players is 3.98, compared to the average GAR for departed players of 1.175.

The quality of the roster has improved significantly over the past few weeks. Furthermore, even without the GAR projections for the goalies, Logan Thompson’s GAR value compared to Darcy Kuemper is a clear improvement. Last season, Thompson was worth 13.5 GAR. Kuemper was worth -7.2.

Overall, the Capitals are positioning themselves to return to the playoffs next season, assuming Pierre-Luc Dubois returns to the form we saw in Winnipeg in 2022-23.

By Justin Trudel