French far-right leads in first round of early elections

French voters will face a crucial choice on July 7 in the second round of early parliamentary elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II — or no majority at all.

Poll forecasts suggest the far-right National Rally has a good chance of winning a majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time, but the outcome remains uncertain due to the complicated voting system.

In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally edged him out, with an estimated one-third of the vote. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes the center-left, greens and far-left forces, came in second, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

Let’s take a closer look:

How it’s working?

The French system is complicated and disproportionate to nationwide party support. Legislators are elected by district.

More than 60 candidates who won at least 50% of the vote on Sunday were elected in direct elections.

Additionally, the two leading candidates qualify for the second round, as well as all other candidates who receive the support of more than 12.5% of registered voters.

In many districts, three candidates advanced to the second round, although some tactics have already been announced to block far-right candidates: the left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they come in third to support other politicians opposed to the far-right. Macron’s centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would drop out before the run-off in order to block the National Assembly.

This makes the outcome of the second round uncertain, even though polls show the National Rally party has a good chance of winning an absolute majority, or at least 289 of the 577 seats.

The National Assembly, the lower house, is the more powerful of France’s two houses of parliament. It has the final say in lawmaking over the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives.

Macron is president until 2027 and has said he will not step down before the end of his term.

What is cohabitation?

If the National Rally or another political force than his centrist alliance wins a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from that new majority.

In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that differ from the president’s plan.

The modern French Republic has experienced cohabitation three times, the last under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, leads the government and presents draft laws.

“In the case of concubinage, the policy implemented is essentially the prime minister’s policy,” said political historian Jean Garrigues.

The president is weakened in the country during cohabitation, but still has some authority over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, as he is responsible for negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.

“The president can prevent or temporarily suspend the implementation of a certain number of the prime minister’s projects, as he has the power to sign or not sign government orders or decrees,” Garrigues added.

“However, the prime minister has the right to submit these orders and decrees to a vote of the National Assembly, thus ignoring the president’s reluctance,” he noted.

Who is in charge of defense and foreign policy?

During previous cohabitations, defence and foreign policy were considered an informal “reserved domain” for the president, who was usually able to find a compromise with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad.

However, the current views of the far-right and left-wing coalition on these issues differ radically from Macron’s approach and are likely to become a subject of tension during a potential coalition.

According to the constitution, “the president is the head of the armed forces, but it is the prime minister who has the armed forces at his disposal,” Garrigues said.

“Also in the diplomatic field, the president’s scope of action is significantly limited,” Garrigues added.

Far-right leader Jordan Bardella, who could become prime minister if his party wins a majority of seats, said he intended to “be a cohabiting prime minister who respects the Constitution and the role of the President of the Republic but is uncompromising on the policies we will implement.”

Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine — a possibility that Macron has not ruled out. Bardella also said he would refuse French deliveries of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of striking targets in Russia itself.

What happens if there is no majority?

The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly — as has been the case with Macron’s centrist alliance since 2022.

However, the National Assembly has already announced it will reject this option because it would mean the far-right government could soon be toppled in a vote of no confidence if other political parties were to merge.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from left to right, but that seems unlikely given the political differences.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he hoped on Sunday to win over enough centrist lawmakers to implement “most of the projects and ideas” together with other “republican forces”, which could include both centre-left and centre-right forces.

Experts say another complicated option would be to appoint a “government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties, but which would still need to be approved by a majority in the National Assembly. Such a government would likely focus mainly on day-to-day business rather than implementing major reforms.

Garrigues said that if political talks drag on too long due to the summer holidays and the Paris Olympics, which will take place from July 26 to August 11, a “transitional period” could not be ruled out in which Macron’s centrist government would “continue to deal with current issues” while waiting for further decisions.

“Whatever the National Assembly looks like, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic seems flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances,” Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, said in a written note. “The institutions are more solid than they seem, even in the face of this experimental exercise.”

“But there remains one unknown in this equation: the population’s ability to accept this situation,” Mock-Gruet wrote.