What a new Labour government will mean for UK foreign policy – ​​NBC New York

• One of the priorities of the new government will be to regulate the delicate links between global superpowers and geopolitical rivals: the US and China.
• Labour leader Keir Starmer has promised to improve the “failed” trade deal between the UK and the EU, while insisting there is no reason to rejoin the bloc.
• The new government will also seek to strengthen the UK’s national security in the face of growing global threats.

LONDON — Britain’s new government will have to deal with a complex international situation after Britons go to the polls on July 4.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is widely expected to lead his party to victory, promising to launch a “decade of national renewal” after 14 years of Conservative rule.

But the centre-left politician will also seek to redefine Britain’s image on the international stage in the face of Brexit, a recent series of domestic political and economic missteps and a more divided global landscape. CNBC looks at the new government’s foreign policy priorities.

Dealing with US-China trade tensions

One of the priorities of the new government will be to regulate the delicate links between global superpowers and geopolitical rivals: the US and China.

Labour will want to maintain Britain’s so-called “special relationship” with its transatlantic ally, presenting a united front on areas of shared strategic interest. But it will also have to adapt to a more protectionist and possibly unpredictable US, particularly in the event of a change of leadership after the US presidential election in November.

“You can imagine that the relationship between the new personas of Keir Starmer and Donald Trump will be awkward,” David Dunn, professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, told CNBC in a phone interview. “But they will work together.”

Progress on a U.K.-U.S. free trade agreement — a key pledge of the Brexit campaign — is also likely to be limited, given the current interest from both Republican and Democratic administrations. Instead, the U.K. might be expected to focus on some “sectoral agreements” and pursue partnerships in military and critical technology, Chatham House executives Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O’Sullivan said in a May note.

In the face of a more assertive China, Labour is likely to maintain Britain’s current position of “deliberate strategic ambiguity”, Dunn said, given the country’s economic ties with Beijing, even in the face of geopolitical and national security concerns. Labour ministers – like the Conservatives – have met with the Chinese-founded fast-fashion giant ahead of a potential London stock exchange listing, despite disputes over its human rights record.

“The UK is in a uniquely ambiguous position – similar to the EU – dependent on China but also concerned about territorial grabs and regional threats,” Dunn said.

Repairing EU Relations

Labour is also likely to seek closer cooperation with the European Union.

Starmer, who campaigned for the Remain movement not to leave the bloc in the 2016 UK referendum, said there was “no case” for rejoining the EU, including its single market and customs union. Nevertheless, he promised to improve the “failed” UK-EU deal, including in areas such as trade, research and security.

“There may be opportunities to revisit fundamental elements of the trade relationship — not immediately, but once both sides rebuild trust and the relationship is working better,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, told CNBC by phone.

Britain’s steadfast support for Ukraine in the face of a full-scale Russian invasion also helped to smooth relations with its EU neighbours, establishing its post-Brexit role in strengthening European security. That position looks set to continue under a Labour government.

“This support has strengthened the UK’s discussions with EU countries on shared threats, which in turn opens up the opportunity for a more constructive discussion on the post-Brexit relationship,” said Chatham House’s Maddox and O’Sullivan.

Improving national security

Strengthening Britain’s national security will also be a key priority for Labour amid rising global tensions and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In its election manifesto, Labour mirrored Conservative plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), but replaced the 2023 timetable with an ambition to achieve the target “as soon as possible”.

However, given the current geopolitical situation, Chatham House recommended increasing defence spending to a minimum of 3%.

Starmer also said Labour would “maintain an unwavering commitment to NATO and our nuclear deterrent, and a renewed focus on improving morale in our armed forces”. However, discussions about the future shape of the transatlantic military alliance are likely to continue into the next US administration.

Strengthening the international order

A more general priority for Starmer may be to establish Britain as a stable force in a year of global elections and political change.

“There is an attempt to be a pillar of stability in a changing world,” Dunn said, adding that Labour could provide a counterweight to the changing political mood in Europe and the US

“Britain was an early adopter of populism. While most of the rest of the western world is moving to the right, Britain is moving to the left,” he said.

Chatham House directors said areas of influence were likely to include diplomacy, security and international law and order, where the UK already has established expertise.

“The UK should play a coherent role on global issues where it has credibility – particularly climate change, international development, arms control and technology governance,” added Chatham House’s O’Sullivan and Maddox.