Can left-of-centre parties unite to block far-right victory in French elections? | Political news

France finds itself in uncharted territory after President Emmanuel Macron’s risky decision to hold early elections backfired and saw the opposition far-right Rally National (RN) party secure a landslide victory in Sunday’s first-round parliamentary election, analysts said.

Led by Marine Le Pen and her young protégé Jordan Bardella, the RN is expected to win the largest share of the 577-seat lower house of parliament, with 33% of the vote in the first round of voting, almost double the 18.9% it won in the last parliamentary elections in 2022.

If the country’s position in the polls does not change in the crucial second round of voting on July 7, the election could produce the country’s first far-right prime minister since World War II.

Meanwhile, Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition recorded a distant 20.3 percent, a devastating blow to the ruling alliance. The results were worse than the coalition’s 26 percent in the 2022 election.

The RN’s success is likely to give it a majority of seats in parliament on Sunday, but analysts say it may not get the absolute majority it needs, with polls predicting it will win around 230 seats rather than the quite magic number of 289. Macron’s alliance is predicted to win only around 70-100 seats, while the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), could win around 165 seats.

Left and centre party leaders are now seeking to block the Royal Navy by negotiating a strategic alliance between the traditionally opposing blocs.

If they fail, analysts say President Macron could be forced to work with an opposition prime minister in a rare “cohabitation” alliance (in which the president and prime minister belong to different political parties). That could significantly limit his powers and reverse his government’s policies on a wide range of issues, including energy, the European Union and France’s support for Ukraine against Russia.

Here’s what we know about how sites are maneuvering to block RN:

How are left-wing and centre parties reacting?

Left and center blocs are trying to change their position, hoping to prevent an absolute victory for RN in Sunday’s second round. Time pressure increases uncertainty: candidate lists must be ready by Tuesday evening, experts say.

Coalition leaders, including Macron, appealed to voters “not to cast a single more vote” for RN.

Importantly, they also called for an alliance between the two traditionally opposing blocs to fight a common enemy – an exclusionary tactic known as the “cordon sanitaire” used in several EU countries to keep fringe parties at bay and prevent them from participating in government.

“In the face of the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, unequivocally democratic and republican alliance in the second round,” Macron said in a statement. “The far right is at the gates of power,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned in a post on X.

Will this strategy work?

Experts say this strategy is easier said than done because some groups are wary of working together.

The left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), for its part, reacted swiftly, with leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon promising to withdraw all candidates who came third in the first round “in every respect.”

This means that left-wing and centrist voters will be less divided on July 7, as only centrist candidates will remain on the ballot in those cases – although it is unclear whether voters will opt for this strategy.

However, centrist parties do not seem as enthusiastic and are wary of joining a left-wing coalition led by Mélenchon, who is seen by some as a polarising figure.

“There are many contradictory positions,” said Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). “Macron’s party follows the same logic, but others say they will only do so in areas where they support left-of-center candidates, not in areas where the far left is running.

“So while we have a very clear position in the left alliance, in the centre it is much less clear.”

Meanwhile, one of the Ensemble coalition’s candidates, Albane Branlant, who ran in the northern Somme department, has already heeded calls from third-place candidates to step down. “I do not confuse a political opponent with an enemy of the Republic,” Branlant wrote on X, announcing her intention to withdraw from the race.

How does the National Assembly react?

Although Bardella had previously promised not to lead a government that lacked an absolute majority in the National Council, he adopted a more conciliatory tone on Sunday. “I intend to be the prime minister of all the French, respecting the opposition and always remembering the unity of the nation,” he said in a statement.

The RN has toned down what pundits call its incendiary rhetoric on race and immigration in recent years, but it is still seen as an outcast in mainstream centrist French politics. Party leader Marine Le Pen sealed Sunday’s historic victory by re-electing her to her seat representing the northern Pas-de-Calais department.

Although the campaign for the second round will not officially begin until Friday, RN leaders are already mobilising their voters online.

“By voting for our candidates, you will ensure that the country finds, in unity and fraternity, the energy to become one,” wrote a triumphant Le Pen in a post on X. “On July 7, mobilize for the people to win!”

Thousands of protesters worried about the prospect of a far-right government took to the streets of Paris on Sunday, where violent clashes with police erupted and experts say provided ammunition to the Royal Navy.

“The RN leaders are taking advantage of this and saying – look, they are extremists, we are the ones fighting for order,” said DGAP analyst Ross. “It is very important for the left that there is peace in the streets, that there is no violence. If the French electorate gets the impression that the left is causing more chaos than the far right, that could favour a victory for the far right on 7 July.”

Why is the far right winning in France?

Like much of Europe, France has been in the grip of a rising populist wave for some time. Widespread discontent with Macron’s government and the cost of living crisis have fueled anger and discontent in the country and pushed many into the arms of parties like Le Pen who promise change.

Analyst Jean Yves Camus of the Jean Jaures Foundation said Sunday’s election, which saw an unusually high turnout, was both a rejection of Macron and an embrace of the far right, which opposes immigration, opposes the way the EU is run and opposes sending troops and more ammunition to Ukraine. That rejection involved people of all ages and backgrounds, he said.

“This is something new because the party used to be strong among the working class and lower income classes, but now it’s making big strides in the educated category… and the upper class as well.”