All-electric, well-financed and flexible: what Europe’s energy system could look like by 2030

The sun is shining brightly over Europe’s energy sector. The European Union is on track to become a global solar powerhouse, with ambitious targets of reaching 750 GW by 2030.

But the sun doesn’t always shine. The challenge now is to create a system that can cope with the changing nature of renewable energy sources, upending energy management as we know it.

For Euronews’ special live policy event, Europe’s flexibility revolution: the next step in the energy transition, we invited Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe, to present the findings of the Mission Solar 2040 report, which shows how Europe is doing on the path to decarbonisation and what the next steps are, with a special focus on solar energy.

Following Hemetsberger’s speech, Robert Hodgson, senior environment and energy reporter at Euronews’ new policy unit, led a panel discussion with industry leaders, representatives and policymakers to detail the actions needed to ensure a smooth energy transition.

The distinguished panelists included Francois Beaude, Head of Strategy at the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); Juan Rivier Abbad, Head of Renewable Energy Regulation at Iberdrola; Stefano Grassi, Head of the EU Energy Commission; and Sonya Twohig, Secretary General of the European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSO-E).

The growth of solar energy

The success of solar power is evident on rooftops across Europe. From 1 gigawatt (GW) of installed capacity in 2004 to 269 GW in 2023, Europe is well on track to meet its 2030 targets.

“Solar PV has a mission to help Europe become the safest, cleanest and most prosperous continent in the world,” explained Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe. “(But) this is only possible if we start a flexibility revolution.”

Flexibility, Hemetsberger explains, is a key factor in achieving Europe’s decarbonization goals, alongside the drive for rapid electrification. Mission Solar 2040 describes the “flexibility revolution” as not only a type of flexibility that we can see, but also How we provide flexibility, for example through battery storage solutions at home and in the grid.

Three scenarios for solar energy

To map Europe’s future, SolarPower Europe worked with leading European planners to create three different scenarios for 2040, with projected data on energy system costs, energy prices, total capacity and CO2 reductions. These are:

• Solar as usual: limited flexibility and electrification
• Solar and Flexibility: More Focus on Battery Storage and Cross-Border Grids
• Solar, flexibility and electrification: includes the electrification of vehicles, heat pumps and electrolysers.

Scenario three – solar plus flexibility and electrification – is Hemetsberger’s dream scenario. Alongside electrification, demand-side flexibility is being incorporated, bringing many electric vehicles, heat pumps and electrolysers to the market.

In this case, Europe’s target of 750 gigawatts by 2023 is not only achievable, but also surpassable. “We can reach more than 1.2 terawatts by 2030,” Hemetsberger explains. “And we can double that by 2040, reaching more than 2.4 terawatts by 2040. But more steps are needed. A revolution in flexibility is needed.”

The benefits of flexibility and electrification

According to forecasts, if Europe increases the flexibility of supply and demand and sets its electrification targets, it could radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions – by 2030, CO2 emissions could reach 151 million tonnes per year, and by 2040, even 555 million tonnes.

Cost savings would also skyrocket at both the system and consumer levels. Projections suggest that energy system costs could be cut by €160 billion per year by 2040, while consumers would see a 33 percent reduction in electricity costs by 2040.

Based on SolarPower Europe’s dream scenario, Europe’s electricity costs would fall by 25 percent by 2030 and by 33 percent by 2040.

Unlocking the Flexibility Revolution

In addition to the forecasts, SolarPower Europe also offers a comprehensive roadmap to help Europe achieve its climate and energy transition goals. The roadmap covers four key aspects:

1. Setting new EU targets for renewables, storage and networks for 2030 and 2040
2. Improving energy system modeling capabilities
3. Unlocking investment in decentralized, large-scale, seasonal solutions that provide flexibility
4. Adoption of an EU Electrification Action and Investment Plan with the aim of achieving at least 50% electrification by 2040 or 2050.

Setting EU flexibility targets

In line with the first point of the plan, Hemetsberger spoke about logistics. “First, we need to set new targets for renewables, and these targets must be supplemented by targets for storage in the network. Not only for 2030, but also for 2040. We already have targets for renewables for 2030, but we do not yet have targets for flexibility.”

Stefano Grassi, the Commissioner for Energy’s head of cabinet, later added the Commission’s perspective. “When we started our Green Deal journey, we focused on how quickly we can replace fossil fuels with green technologies. What are the enabling conditions? What are the targets? What are the incentives and financing? What we have learned in these five years is that the context around this generation matters; the networks, the flexibility.”

Improving system modeling capabilities

Implementing a radically new energy system also requires forward-thinking. “We need to make sure that any planning, any planning failures do not put the energy transition at risk,” says Hemetsberger. In addition to a solid plan, Hemetsberger calls for adequate funding to implement national energy and climate plans, both at European and national level.

Hemetsberger believes that while network operators have an obligation to plan and model, the European Commission should streamline this process by looking for new, high-quality tools to help member states, network operators and regulators create reliable and comprehensive needs assessments.

National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) are required of all EU governments. These plans set out how each member state intends to meet its already established 2030 targets, including a renewable energy target. Looking at the current plans, Hemetsberger noted that most member states have high ambitions for solar, but not the same ambitions when it comes to improving the grid, storage capacity and flexibility more broadly.

Sonya Twohig, Secretary General of ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators) later agreed that the analysis was crucial. “It is very important that the lessons from the last five to ten years of the NECP are (taken into account) in the future, because that will determine how we plan the European energy system, the European grid and what we can expect from it.”

Unlocking investment in decentralized, flexible, and large-scale solutions

The third pillar of Mission Solar 2040 is to unlock investment in flexibility in a decentralized, large-scale and seasonal energy system.

Our panel discussed using market incentives to achieve this goal. “We have huge investments in renewables, flexibility and networks. We want to do this in a way that is not too costly for our citizens and our companies,” said Francois Beaude, head of strategy at the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), an agency that helps national authorities monitor energy markets and implement EU policies.

Not everyone agreed with the investors’ arguments, citing the difficulty of getting investors interested in green technologies that will eventually become cheaper. To address this, Hemetsberger presents two solutions: reduced curtailment (reducing wasted energy during periods of grid congestion) and a price boost for solar capture (what solar investors can earn).

“Solar plus flexibility and electrification would be a win-win for investors and society,” Hemetsberger said. “In this scenario, investors are expected to earn 71 percent more in 2030 and 54 percent more in 2040. At the same time, consumers still save 25 to 33 percent on their electricity bills.”

Adoption of the EU Electrification Action and Investment Plan

SolarPower Europe calls on European leaders to swiftly take action on electrification and prepare an investment plan within 100 days of the start of the new mandate.

Sonya Twohig, Secretary General of ENTSO-E, used her platform to call for strong leadership in monitoring and implementing these plans to enable their wide-scale implementation.

The commissioner’s head of cabinet for energy had to temper expectations. “We might not see an electrification roadmap in the first 100 days because that’s the moment when we have to get things in order,” Grassi says. “We have a lot of reforms that have just come into effect. The right moment to reflect on that is when we set a decarbonization target for 2040.”

When pressed for a date for announcing that target, Grassi was clear. “You should ask the new president,” he told Hodgson.

Now is not the time to delay

It’s clear that Europe has work to do if it wants to meet its decarbonisation goals. Reaching Europe’s target of 42 per cent renewable energy by 2030 will require almost doubling what we have now, warns panel host Robert Hodgson. In the electricity sector, the figure is even higher, around 70 per cent by the end of the decade.

If Mission Solar 2040 is correct, this could be achieved by significantly increasing grid flexibility and immediately implementing electrification targets, while providing significant investment and forward-looking policy incentives.

But these strong demands, alongside another legally binding renewable energy target for 2040 and separate targets for storage and flexibility, come at a time of uncertainty for the European Parliament.

However, our panelists remain optimistic, based on the ambitious forecasts contained in the SolarPower Europe report.

Euronews Events

Euronews Events operates from the heart of Brussels, providing in-depth coverage of European affairs to our audiences across the EU. With the launch of the new Euronews Policy Centre, we now host regular events, panel discussions and debates on current European issues, listening to industry insiders, business leaders and decision-makers and driving the conversation forward.

For more information on Euronews’ upcoming political events, please contact the Euronews Events team at [email protected]

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