How will South Africa’s new coalition government shape foreign policy?

How will South Africa’s new coalition government shape foreign policy?

The challenge of consensus-based decision-making could push South Africa to adopt more balanced policies in addressing pressing global challenges.

South Africa’s political landscape has changed dramatically since the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority on May 29, forcing it to form the Government of National Unity (GNU). This new political reality could have far-reaching implications for the country’s international relations over the next five years.

The recent appointment of Ronald Lamola as Minister of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) may signal that the broad contours of South Africa’s foreign policy will remain unchanged. International relations will continue to be guided by the Constitution and underpinned by the ANC’s ideological commitment to Pan-Africanism and progressive internationalism.

However, questions about the nature and direction of South African foreign policy under the coalition government are much more difficult to answer.

The ANC minister heading DIRCO (along with two ANC deputies) cannot hide the deep and glaring foreign policy fissures between some GNU parties – in particular the ANC and the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Can DA officials align their positions on South Africa’s response to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, for example, which have largely been framed within the ANC’s overarching commitment to progressive internationalism? Can the GNU remain true to the ANC’s formulation of Pan-Africanism, while the Patriotic Alliance (PA) sticks to its hardline approach to illegal immigration?

There is no way to hide the deep and glaring rifts in foreign policy between some GNU parties.

These predictable rifts are perhaps less relevant to the day-to-day running of DIRCO or the Bureau’s international relations activities. They are, however, critical to defining the broad outline of South African foreign policy for the next five years.

If the GNU fails to present a united front on pressing global events, political opposition forces could easily attack and undermine the country’s international relations. The lack of consensus could also lead to a less decisive, inconsistent approach – especially if the institutional linkages between the executive and legislative branches of government in shaping foreign policy are subject to the GNU principle of sufficient consensus.

This could have been avoided if the GNU parties had recognised these potential pitfalls in advance and agreed that major foreign policy decisions would be the exclusive preserve of one party, depending on the political affiliation of the minister in question.

This could be done in exchange for party influence in other policy areas, which would minimize GNU infighting and prioritize action and expediency over continued consensus. Such an arrangement could be reinforced by a clear agreement detailing cabinet prerogatives and executive powers in foreign policy. The likelihood of either scenario, however, remains uncertain.

Opening up foreign policy to an eclectic mix of actors can perpetuate a culture of political pragmatism

The internal governance arrangements for the GNU could also lead to streamlining and rationalizing working relationships between different nodes of the foreign policy establishment. This includes the Office of the President, DIRCO, the International Relations Sub-Committee of the ANC National Executive Committee (NEC), and the Committee on International Relations and Cooperation of the National Assembly.

Depending on how the GNU works, to achieve sufficient consensus, the ANC’s NEC subcommittee may need to consistently engage with the worldviews of the DA, Freedom Front Plus and PA, among others. Many of these parties hold diametrically opposed positions on how the country should respond to pressing international events.

This trade-off between the internal cohesion and durability of the GNU and party pressures may be the most important factor influencing continuity and change. It means that the international relations of the seventh administration may depend less on who holds key executive positions than on how the GNU’s government and party structures cooperate in formulating and implementing foreign policy.

This will not be easy, as recent national election results have pushed these structures into uncharted territory. The ANC’s loss of 71 seats in parliament will undoubtedly also change the power dynamics among members of the International Relations and Cooperation Committee and its subsequent utility in lawmaking, oversight and budget allocation.

GNU parties should encourage consensus building, not be forced to do so.

The net effect of this new government arrangement may be that more middle-of-the-road foreign policy outcomes consistently win out. This is not an inherently bad thing for a country’s international relations.

In fact, an approach that opens up foreign policy to a more eclectic mix of actors forced to reach consensus could help smooth out the country’s international relations. In the longer term, it could entrench a culture of greater political pragmatism as South Africa navigates an increasingly volatile and uncertain global environment in pursuit of its national interest.

As the fates of the GNU party become increasingly intertwined, this new set of foreign policy actors should actively encourage consensus-building, rather than simply be forced into it.

The stability and effective functioning of the GNU – at least until the next national elections – could provide this incentive, since all members risk losing support if they fail in their collective governance efforts. Let us hope that the GNU parties come to this conclusion sooner rather than later.

ISS is hosting a panel discussion on the future of South Africa’s foreign policy under the GNU on 4 July. Register to attend online or in Pretoria.

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