Power grid concerns complicate talks about supporting green energy in Pennsylvania.

As billions of federal dollars for clean energy projects become available to Pennsylvania, state lawmakers are increasingly talking about making the commonwealth’s power grid greener. But beneath that talk are big questions about the future of the state’s electric grid.

Important policy decisions are underway, such as regulating new industries for hydrogen production and carbon capture, setting emission limits and speeding up permitting.

But many Republicans say they fear that energy production will not keep up with growing demand in the coming years — both from Pennsylvanians and from out-of-state buyers. They also worry that passing legislation to encourage clean energy production or cut emissions will deepen shortages.

Environmentalists say concerns about grid reliability are exaggerated and serve as excuses to slow the transition to clean energy. Many also argue that clean energy is a solution to potential shortages.

Pennsylvania gets its electricity from PJM, a power grid operator serving 13 states in the Northeast and Midwest.

PJM runs a market that includes producers such as gas and coal-fired power plants and a smaller number of solar, wind and other renewable energy producers. Utilities can then buy the electricity those producers produce and deliver it to homes and businesses.

Pennsylvania is a major supplier of energy to the PJM grid, accounting for a quarter of total electricity production and is the second-largest energy producer in the country.

In recent years, PJM has repeatedly said its energy demand is expected to outpace its energy production, especially as more power plants are closed. The company predicts that more than a fifth of its existing power generators, mostly coal- and gas-fired plants, will be retired by 2030.

Some states have already struggled to meet demand. In Maryland, a coal-fired power plant notified PJM of its intention to close, but PJM said its closure would negatively impact grid reliability and refused to approve the closure. The Brandon Shores plant was forced to remain open and could operate until 2028. Environmental advocates have accused PJM of lacking foresight in planning the plant’s closure.

Republicans in Harrisburg say incidents like this make them wary of moving too quickly away from coal and natural gas.

“I think PJM has a real crisis on its hands,” Joe Pittman (R., Ind.), the state Senate majority leader, told Spotlight PA. “I don’t see any really foolproof plan to replace the megawatts that are going to be shut down in the next few short years.”

Pittman has said that generating energy from natural gas and coal is essential to a reliable grid and supports an “all-of-item” approach. He has argued for reducing permitting requirements for gas and oil companies, opposing a cap-and-trade program that would put a price on carbon emissions, as well as expanding nuclear power plants and carbon capture.

“It’s no secret that demand for electricity is growing. It’s growing faster than anyone expected,” Pittman said. “So we have to be very honest with ourselves that we need all forms of electricity generation to provide a stable grid.”

Environmentalists agree that the gap between energy production and demand has widened and will continue to grow. But they say the problem can be solved if federal regulators and PJM speed up the approval and construction of clean energy projects.

Tom Rutigliano, a senior spokesman for the Natural Resources Defense Council who focuses on PJM, said there is no proposal under consideration in Pennsylvania that would immediately close all gas- or coal-fired power plants. He added that many of the grid problems could be solved by speeding up the approval process for new power producers, most of which are solar plants.

“PJM needs to be able to bring these new plants online much, much faster than they are doing, and they have found that they cannot keep up with the new plants coming online to keep up with the retirements,” Rutigliano said.

According to Rutigliano, the PJM approval process was intended to handle a small number of connection requests from large generators such as coal- and gas-fired plants.

However, more than 90% of the current projects pending PJM approval rely on renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, which generate less energy but would require significantly more of it.

In 2022, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ordered PJM to overhaul its producer approval process. A PJM spokesman said the company has greenlit about 450 projects out of 2,700 in the pipeline since those changes, mostly solar and storage projects. But those projects have not progressed to construction, which PJM attributes to the delay, a lack of adequate financing, and site and supply chain issues.

Rob Bair, president of Pennsylvania’s Building and Construction Trades Council, said he hasn’t seen any significant speed increase since the approval process changed. Until PJM proves it can quickly connect new energy projects to its existing grid, developers will be hesitant to start projects.

Bair also expressed concerns that the amount of energy generated by all the projects in PJM’s pipeline will not be enough to meet projected energy demand over the next decade. According to PJM’s analysis, energy demand in the states it serves will reach more than 165,000 megawatts by 2034. Total generation from projects approved since PJM’s regulatory changes will be just 40,000 megawatts.

Bair said this means the state will have to continue to rely on other, more efficient methods of energy production, such as natural gas or nuclear power, instead of less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind.

Meanwhile, Rutigliano said all indications are that the burden on the electricity grid will continue to increase.

First, extreme weather events—such as intense storms, cold, and heat—are happening more frequently, and current infrastructure is not designed to handle such weather. In Texas, a major winter storm in 2021 destroyed power plants—mostly gas, but also nuclear, wind, and others—and left thousands without power in freezing conditions.

There has also been a sharp increase in electricity demand due to the development of electric vehicles and data centers.S became more common.

Rutigliano said PJM has more than enough renewable energy and storage in its pipeline to meet demand. Questions about whether it will have enough capacity, he said, come down to connecting existing projects to the grid, not a lack of power generation.

“It’s a really dynamic system full of intelligent people whose mission in life is to keep the power grid reliable,” he told Spotlight PA.

However, Rutigliano said, the focus on grid reliability could be used as a smokescreen when legislating energy policy.

“If anything, there is a risk that people will either panic about scenarios that are meant to identify risks or, frankly, exaggerate reliability risks in bad faith to promote fossil fuel policies.”

90.5 WESA is partnered with Spotlight PA, a cooperative, reader-funded newsroom producing news reporting for all of Pennsylvania. More at spotlightpa.org.